技術密集產業技術變動幅度大，使得技術生命週期縮短，突顯技術預測對技術發展策略的重要性。情境分析藉由時間點之縱斷面整合不同時期或不同產業之技術預測情境資料，在眾多技術預測工具中較能掌握技術發展趨勢。然而，情境分析著重技術預測情境資料廣度，缺乏目標導向無法正確評估動態市場需求。本研究目的為建構修正型預測模式，運用貝氏網路作為修正因子，克服情境分析缺乏目標導向無法解決動態市場預測之困境。本研究運用SONY VTR 技術發展策略
進行探索性個案研究。以目標導向進行技術預測動態評估，呈現技術發展策略如何運用於技術密集產業的預測模式。

Continuous breakthroughs in technology-intensive industries have resulted in the reduced life cycles of its products. The scenario analysis pays great attention to the extent of the situational data of technical forecasting, it still cannot correctly evaluate the dynamic market demand due to the lack of goal orientation. This study aims toward the construction of a corrective forecasting model in order to overcome the inabilities of forecasting the dynamic technical market for the scenario analysis due to the lack of goal orientation. This study discovered that the corrective scenario analysis possessed the features of goal orientation, as it can be used as a corrective factor to effectively
overcome the dynamic assessment of technical development strategies. This model can potentially improve the accuracy of dynamic assessment required for technical forecasting.