本研究主要是利用實質選擇權(real options approach;ROA)方法，建構單一產品供應鏈決策者依據產品生命週期理論，在不確定環境下之最適決策模型。研究假設消費者購買產品的機率密度函數為Weibull分配，以供應商生產之產品數量、出貨給零售商的產品數量與零售商的產品銷售量為決策變數，聯合利潤最大化為目標，建構供應鏈最適決策門檻值與供應鏈價值模型。最後設定參數值，進行供應鏈最適決策門檻值的數值分析、敏感度分析與比較靜態分析，以了解無風險利率、產品生命週期、需求彈性與折現率對單一產品供應鏈最適決策價值的影響。結果發現：(1)無風險利率對供應鏈最適決策門檻值呈現正相關，當市場的無風險利率上升，專案價值的門檻值會隨著市場的無風險利率增加而提高。(2)產品生命週期對最適門檻值呈現負相關，當產品生命週期較長時，專案價值的門檻值會隨著產品生命週期延長而降低，供應鏈的專案價值大於決策門檻值的機會大為增加，供應鏈集團繼續留在市場的機率相對提高。(3)當需求彈性小於1.3時，需求彈性對最適門檻值呈現正相關，專案價值的門檻值會隨著需求彈性的增加而提高。當需求彈性介於1.3~1.5之間時，需求彈性對最適門檻值呈現負相關，專案價值的門檻值會隨著需求彈性的增加而降低。當需求彈性大於1.5時，需求彈性對最適門檻值呈現微小的正相關，專案價值的門檻值會隨著需求彈性的增加而略為提高。(4)折現率對最適門檻值呈現負相關，當折現率上升時，供應鏈的專案價值大於決策門檻值的機會大為增加，供應鏈集團繼續留在市場上進行營運，以獲取利潤的機率相對提高。

In this paper we construct the optimal single-product supply chain model under uncertainty by using real options approach and product life cycle theory. Assume that the consumer’s purchasing quantity follow Weibull distribution, the spot price of goods is a dynamic process, the product quantity, shipments quantity and sales volume are the decision strategies, and their aim is to maximize joint profits. We then conduct numerical analysis, sensitivity analysis and comparative static analysis to examine the effect of the risk free rate, product life cycle, elasticity of demand and discount rate for the optimal value of the single-product supply chain model. By these ways, we obtain the following results. (1)The risk free rate has positive relation with the threshold of single-product supply chain model. (2)The product life cycle has negative relation with the threshold of single-product supply chain model. (3)The elasticity of demand has positive relation with the threshold of single-product supply chain model, when the elasticity of demand is less than 1.3 or greater than 1.5. The elasticity of demand has negative relation with the threshold of single-product supply chain model, when the elasticity of demand is between 1.3 and 1.5. (4)The discount rate has negative relation with the threshold of single-product supply chain model.