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篇名 台灣工業部門之平均薪資對勞動生產力之影響與預測
卷期 2:1
並列篇名 The influences and forecasting for the average monthly wages of Taiwanese industrial section to labor productivity
作者 林瑞山
頁次 187-213
關鍵字 平均薪資勞動生產力自我回歸整合移動平均轉移函數預測average wageslabor productivityARIMAtransfer functionforecasting
出刊日期 200803

中文摘要

勞動生產力不僅是一個國家經濟成長的重要貢獻因素,也是世界競爭力評比的重要指標之一。而,薪資除了是企業對於員工的工作績效表現所給予的報償外,更是企業用來提升員工工作效率之工具。過去,在薪資對於勞動生產力影響的相關研究中,多以員工與企業為探討對象,且為橫斷面資料分析,並未以產業部門與縱斷面資料加以探討。由於,勞動生產力為台灣的政府部門規劃之重要經濟成長的貢獻因素,因此,本研究以時間序列資料來建構台灣工業部門的平均薪資對於勞動生產力的ARIMA與轉移函數模型並探討其間之影響。實證結果發現:台灣的勞動生產力受工業部門當期與落後11期的平均薪資之顯著且正向的影響。本研究結果除了確認薪資為台灣勞動生產力的重要影響因素外,亦可供做台灣的政府與企業界在規劃提高勞動生產力之政策與措施時的參考。

英文摘要

This paper studies the dynamic relationships between Taiwan industrial section’s average wages and labor productivity. Box-Jenkins ARIMA and transfer function models are employed in this study. This paper uses monthly data between January 1986 and March 2007 to analyze these time series using classical white-noise regression models. This paper finds that the Taiwanese labor productivity is mainly influenced by the average monthly wages, and also finds that the dynamic relationship between the labor productivity and average wages over time, shifting from a longer lag response to a shorter lag response. This result has important implications for forecasting the average wages and labor productivity. The forecasting value of these models is carefully examined. This paper concludes with comments on possible future research directions in this field.

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