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國防管理學報

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篇名 地緣威脅、軍事防衛與國防預算關係之實證研究
卷期 25:1
並列篇名 Geographic Threat, Military Defense and Defense Budget : A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis
作者 劉立倫汪進揚陳章仁
頁次 101-114
關鍵字 地緣威脅軍事防衛國防預算區域武裝衝突Geographic ThreatMilitary DefenseDefense BudgetRegional Armed Conflict
出刊日期 200405

中文摘要

地緣威脅、軍事防衛與國防預算規模的關係一向為學者關切的議題;然而過去在此 方面的探討,集中在少數國家的個案研究,其研究結果不僅難以達到理論上的一般化要 求,偈限了決策參考的價值。鑒於此,本研究嘗試從國家地緣的角度,以全球化的觀點 來探討此一議題。經由167個國家1991到1998年間資料的實證分析,我們獲致如下的 研究結果:(1)地緣威脅型態是國家軍事防衛武力建構的重要考量因素;(2)軍事防衛武 力的結構不同,會導致國防預算額度呈現顯著的差異。這研究結果指出國家地緣關係在 軍事發展上有著相當重要的戰略意涵;它不僅界定了敵人可能的威脅方式,也決定了國 家建軍的方向,並且影響國防預算的規模。此外,我們也提出一些建議,作為未來類似研究的參考。

英文摘要

The defense profession has devoted much attention to the question of whether there exist relationships among geographic threat, military defense and defense budget. Prior studies in this area, nevertheless, focused mainly on case study can hardly provide generalized explanations or draw a generalized inference. Thus, to overcome such a problem, this paper seeks to address this issue in a global perspective. Using a sample of 167 countries over the 1991 - 1998 period, we reach the following major results: (1)type of geographic threat plays an important role in determining military defense buildups; and (2)structure of military defense is significantly associated with size of defense budget. Such findings imply that a nation’s geographic situation has a determining impact on military development. Not only can geographic situation explain way of threat which the enemy would take and, then, indicate the direction of military buildups, but it also affects magnitude of defense budget. In addition, some suggestions are made for further research in this area.

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