本文在成本函數的架構下，引用「安全第一法則」之機率條件，估算1998-2004各年度台灣縣市稻農之風險偏好指數，並研究不確定之稻作收入對生產力所產生的風險效果。實證結果顯示:一般來說，各縣市的稻農均呈現風險規避的態度，其中臨近都會區的稻農風險態度較為積極;而中南部農業縣的稻農，風險規避程度較高。由於稻農不是風險中立的，所以在生產力的研究上應考量風險效果。本文將總要素生產力成長率分解為:技術變動、成本收入比和風險效果。迴歸結果顯示:集約經營和耕作機械化均能提高技術變動放果和促進生產力成長;集約化、租貨化和專業化經營可以降低風險效果。其次，加入WTO雖然使風險效果變大，但也降低成本收入比，並促成了技術進步和生產力的提升。

Under the framework of a cost function with safe-first rule， the paper estimated rice farmers' risk preference index for each year and various district in Taiwan during the period 1998-2004. Besides， the risk effect of farmers' uncertain revenues on their productivity was investigated through the decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP). The empirical results show that， generally speaking， farmers in urban areas were less averse to risks while those in rural counties were more risk averse. The TFP growth was decomposed as the effect of technical change， the ratio of costs to revenues， and the risk effect. The productivity regression results show that both capital intensity and ratio of machine hours had a significant influence on technical change and productivity growth; an increase in capital intensity， ratio of rented land， or ratio of machine hours could decrease the risk effect. Finally， although Taiwan's entrance into WTO has increased the risk effect， it also decreased the ratio of costs to revenues and raised the technical progress and TFP growth.