本研究主要在了解臺灣香蕉外銷數量之不確定因素與臺灣香蕉內外銷市場之關聯情形，進而探討外銷數量的不確定性對國內香蕉市場與蕉農利益之影響。基於此目的，本研究首先分析臺灣地區香蕉產業，了解當前臺灣產銷情形，並依當前臺蕉產銷制度之現況，建構一存在因外銷契約達成率高低變動所造成之貿易不確定性之香蕉供需計量模型進行實證分析，以探究影響臺蕉供給與需求之因素及其影響程度，並利用所建構之模型進行模擬分析，以進一步了解蕉農外銷市場契約達成率高低變動對臺灣香蕉市場與蕉農收益之影響。

　　　　　This study aims at analyzing the effects of Taiwan's banana export contract full-fill rate on the domestic markets and on the welfare aspects of farmers. An econometric trade model comprising the factor of contract full-fill rate was established and applied for empirical study of Taiwan banana exports to Japan. The impacts of contract full-fill rate upon prices, quantities and welfare of the domestic markets were then evaluated. Policy implications were then drawn from the theoretical and empirical analyses as references for strategic and policy adjustments of agricultural trade under trade liberalization.