篇名 | 臺灣地區醫師人力供需預測之情境分析 |
---|---|
卷期 | 19:2、19:2 |
並列篇名 | Scenario Analysis of Physician Manpower Supply and Demand in Taiwan |
作者 | 藍忠孚 、 宋文娟 、 陳琇玲 、 詹錕鋙 |
頁次 | 86-95 |
關鍵字 | 醫師人力供需 、 情境分析法 、 Physician manpower supply and demand 、 Scenario analysis 、 TSCI |
出刊日期 | 200004 |
目標:為預測未來短、中、長期醫師人力可能面臨問題。方法:本文以質性研究方式運用情境分析法引入模擬情境。結果:經研究發現未來醫師人力供需:(1)若短、中期內醫師人力政策維持不變,則人力問題需以輔助方案予以緩解;(2)若短、中期內醫師人力政策採調整策略,則人力問題可以獲致適當解決;以及(3)若短、中期內醫師人力政策採開放制度,則人力過剩效應會在長期顯現。結論:最後提出討論,期使我國醫師人力培育制度之發展臻於健全。
Objectives: This study aimed to analyze physician manpower supply and demand. Methods: Using the method of scenario analysis in order to predict possible trends and problems in the future. Results: Our research findings were as follows: (1)If short and mid-term physician manpower policies are fixed, certain supporting plans will be needed. (2) If short and mid-term physician manpower policies are not constant, the manpower problem shall be adjusted with solutions. (3) If short- and mid-term physician manp ower policies adopt to an open system, there will be an oversupply of physicians in the long run. Conclusions: Finally, we expect that Taiwan掇 physician manpower policies can be improved.