This paper examines the changing nature of China's policy toward
Taiwan. Many of the sharpest debates in T aiwan, the United States, and
elsewhere have been over whether recent modifications in policy repre-
sent a genuine overhaul in Beijing's approach to T aipei. To simplify, some argue thatmeaningful change is already happening and that such develop-ments warrant careful study and attention. However , skeptics concludethat change is not happening. As Chen Shui-bian observed during an in-terview with the author , the new strategy is nothing more than a tactic to "deceive our people and foreign countries." After analyzing various indi-cators, this study shows how theories and/or conceptual frameworks oftenemployed in the fields of international relations and comparative politics help analysts from the Chinese mainland, T aiwan, and elsewhere unravel some parts of the complicated puzzle that constitutes Beijing's policy to-ward T aipei. In conclusion, however, the author suggests that it is probable that officials in Taipei will require more facts— not theories— before they agree that there is a genuine "paradigm shift" in Beijing's approach to the thorny T aiwan dispute.