土地使用/覆蓋變遷 (land-use/land-cover change, LUCC) 是全球變遷研究中重要的議題之一，近年來國內外投入相當規模的研究資源，嘗試了解影響土地使用/覆蓋變遷的主要驅動力
(driving forces)，其中以國際組織全球環境變遷人文面向國際計畫 (International Human Dimensions Programm of Global Environmental Change, IHDP) 之土地使用/覆蓋變遷模型 (land use/ land cover change model) 受到最廣泛的討論，該專案於2005年結束，提供多項深入探討本議題之方法架構與成果。土地變遷之影響因素繁多，傳統上將重點放在探討驅動力本體作用，忽略了土地變遷具有空間之關聯性或自我相關性 (spatial association or spatial autocorrelation)，亦即近鄰效果 (neighborhood effect) 的影響。空間自相關係數 (spatial autocorrelation coefficient,SAC) 或空間迴歸模型 (spatial regression model, SRM) 為探討空間關係常用的工具，其中空間自相關係數以相關係數之觀念，藉以探討空間聚集的型態；空間迴歸模型則以線性迴歸模式為基礎，探討自變數以及依變數項的空間差異，對空間近鄰效果提供有效的解釋方式。本研究以臺北都會區為實證對象，利用空間自相關係數來分析土地變遷的聚集型態與分布，接著以空間迴歸模型為工具，建立土地使用/覆蓋變遷驅動力模型之實證結果，從而分析在1991年到2001年之間近鄰效果對台北都會區土地使用/覆蓋變遷之影響與衝擊。

Land-use/land-cover change is of priority concern in global change research. Many researchers have explored the major forces driving land-use/land-cover change using various approaches. The land-use/land-cover project (LUCC) of the International Human Dimensions Program of Global
Environmental Change (IHDP) is the most comprehensive in analyzing land-use/land-cover change,as it identifies the determinants of and forces driving land-use/land-cover change. Previous analyses of driving forces focused on physical impact, such as biophysical factors, economic factors, social factors, and spatial policies, while ignoring the spatial neighborhood effect. The spatial autocorrelation coefficient and spatial regression model are widely applied spatial statistic techniques to explain the effects and distributions of spatial factors. This study identifies the major driving forces of the spatial neighborhood effect on land-use/land-cover change in Metropolitan Taipei. The spatial autocorrelation coefficients are used to identify spatial patterns, and spatial regression model is applied in examining the spatial effect of Metropolitan Taipei during 1991 - 2001.