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商管科技季刊

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篇名 應用存活分析法探討國內航線之營運
卷期 9:3
並列篇名 THE APPLICATION OF SURVIAL ANALYSIS TO THE DOMESTIC AIRLINE OPERATIONS
作者 丁崇德陳怡君
頁次 301-314
關鍵字 航線營運存活分析Cox 比例危險模式Operation of airlinesCox proportional hazard modelSurvival analysis
出刊日期 200809

中文摘要

國內航空運輸需求量於1997 年達最高峰,但在1998 年以後,國內航空市場景氣逐漸下滑,高成本的運輸客機成為航空公司的沈重負擔,尤其在近年來台灣地區大量推動公路建設和高鐵的啟用,以及全球經濟不景氣與石油價格高居不下的壓力下,對國內航空產業在營運管理上無疑是一大考驗。本研究選取飛行班次、可售座位數、載客人數、商務航線、休閒航線與高鐵重複航線的起迄地點等變數,探討國內航線之營運,利用存活分析試圖找出影響國內航線營運之存活因素,以供國內航空業管理者改善缺失與未來營運方針之重要參考方向。結果發現,可售座位數、商
務航線、與高鐵重複航線的起迄地點為國內航線營運存活之重要影響因素。

英文摘要

The market demand for domestic aviation in Taiwan reached its peak in 1997 but started to slide down all the way after 1998. High-cost passenger aircrafts became a heavy burden for aviation companies, and the increasing construction of highways, the inauguration of high speed railway as well as the pressure of global recession in recent years all add the challenges to the operation management of domestic aviation industry.The research seeks to find out the survival factors affecting the operation of the domestic airline by utilizing the survival analysis to examine the variables combination of the frequency of flight, available seat, passengers carried, commercial course, recreation course and the repeated course place of the high speed railway and domestic airlines. The result provides an important reference and basis for airline executives to improve deficiency and serves as a future operation direction. The result of study is found that available seat, commercial course and the repeated course place of the high speed railway for the important survival factor to influence domestic airlines.

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