本研究主要在探討在投機心理之下都市發展的情形，以地價成長的趨勢、人口分佈的狀氓、新建住宅的數量以及住宅區發展的空地為指標，企圖由歷年各項資料的空間變動情形來觀察都市的發展，以驗誼Mills(1981)、劉小蘭(1995)之理論模型。空間的研究範圍則選擇以台 中市為例，時間則以民國七十年至八十年之資料為主，企圖透過時間上的比較，觀察整個台中市都市發展在空間上變化的情形。研究方法主要係應用地理資訊系統，透過趨勢面分析芳法(The Trend Surface Analysis Approach) ，瞭解台中市都市，發展及地價之間的關係從而驗證先前之理論模型。

This article examines the urban development pattern under speculation. According to MilL' (1981)and Liu's(1995) theoretic model: urban development relates to households， firms， constructory， and land owners. From the above model， we find the faster the urban grows the more the vacant space leaves. This phenomenon represents land owners' speculation. They expect to get more benefit from land in next period， therefore， they hold the vacant land in this period that makes urban development discontinue. In this research， Taichung City is chosen to test the theoretic model. Land price， population， and new building distribution are the indexes of urban development. The TIN model is used to transform the numerical data into geographical map. The Trend Surface Analysis Approach is applied to understand the relationships between urban development and vacant land distribution in Taichung City from 1981 to 1991.