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都市與計劃 TSSCI

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篇名 住宅及商業租金聯合均衡模型及交通政策影響分析一紐約都會區之貴證研究
卷期 21:2
並列篇名 THE UNIFIED EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL MARKET RENT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ON TRANSPORTATION POLICY - AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION TO NEW YORK METROPOLITAN
作者 陳彥仲Anas, Alex
頁次 129-148
關鍵字 羅吉模型潛在所得價格彈性旅行時間彈性期望需求租金當量logit modelpotential incomeprice elasticitytravel time elasticityexpected demandrent equityTSSCI
出刊日期 199409

中文摘要

交通政策的實施對都市住宅及商業地價會造成影響,但其影響大小一般不易衡量。本研究引用市場均衡概念,並以不連續選擇理論之羅吉模型(logitmodel)為工具,架構一個計量經 濟模型。此一模型可以用於聯合求解都市住宅及商業用地之價格(以租金表示之)。模型的建立以配合紐約都會區之實質發展以及資料詳細程度進行分區(包括就業分區、住宅分區及商業分區)並據以校估參數。在模型的求解過程中可同時算出各住宅區位、住宅形式、通勤運具與購物區位之聯合選擇機率及使用需求量。在政策分析方面,本研究假設於通勤尖鋒時毆增加地下捷運運輸班吹為原來之兩倍3分析結果顯示在縮短等車時間之後,郊區及市中心曼哈頓(Manhattan)區之住宅需求下降,而環繞市中心之其他分區如皇后(Queens)&! 、布魯克林(Brooklyn)區及布朗克斯(Bronx)區之住宅需求增加,而地租也隨之上漲約1%。

英文摘要

The impacts of transportation policy on urban residential and commercial rent has generally been approved, but the measurement of the impact effects is still remaining uncertain. This study established an empirical simulation model to capture the changes of commercial rent as well as residential rent due to a transportation policy. The model is constructed base on the concept of market equilibrium and by means of the well known multinomiallogit (MNL) model which is frequently discussed in discrete choice theory. The constructed model has been successfully applied to the New York metropolitan area. The joint choice of residential location, housing type, commuting mode and commercial trips as well as commercial travel mode is computed. When the subway waiting time is reduced by halving its headway, the model depicts the decreasing of housing demand in Manhattan and increasing in suburban boroughs: Queens, Brooklyn and Bronx. This also results in I % increase of housing rent in suburban areas. This study illustrates an important experience in modeling the housing and commercial rent market and would be helpful in the future studies of Taiwan cities.

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