在京都議定書的規範下，採用經濟誘因方式鼓?造??增加森?碳吸存，一般被認為是達到減?標準的有效方式。本研究分析私有?在最適管?策?下之碳吸存誘因效果，其??模型修正自Hoen(1994)與Murray(2003)之最適?伐期模型，藉由碳吸存價格下森?最適?伐期??之引入，除修正原木價格與造?成本隨?齡變動外，亦考?砍伐成本，並考慮臺灣現況以追求?地期望價值極大化，模擬分析杉木在?同碳價格對最適?伐期、碳吸存效果、土地期望價與碳吸存機會成本之影響，以及分析碳價格是否對已成?地有縮短?伐期之效果。根據本研究以杉木為?之模擬結果，?為???地，考慮碳價格為每公噸1,400元以上時，地主將會延長?伐期為28?以上（?存在碳價格時之?伐期為20?），?地期望價值提升為每公頃3,845,261.01元，碳吸存?每公頃將增加為2,192.20公噸。其次，對於開始給予獎?給付時?齡為10?之杉木已?地，?碳價格為每公噸1,000元以上時，則地主之最佳決策為?即砍伐?木，再予以重新造?，以提早進入?取碳價格之階段，故?齡為10?以下之?地將會被?即砍伐，造成森?外部效益之減損。臺灣目前並沒有碳價格，但為?因應國際溫室氣體減?，未?無?是進?課徵碳稅、建?碳排放交?或碳價格給付等機制，都會對現存低?齡之已成?產生提早砍伐之誘因。?政府同時對新植造?與已成?之碳吸存提供碳價格給付，也可減輕已成?地提早砍伐的問題，其減輕程?則視對已成?之給付水準而定。

Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO?) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Based on the model developed by Hoen (1994) and Murray (2003), this paper combines an analytical model of the optimal forest rotation with both timber and carbon as priced outputs. A simulation is conducted by using cunnignhania lancelata as an example to determine the optimal forest rotation, the amount of carbon stock, and forest land values. It is found that for the bare forest land the carbon prices of $1,400 per metric ton-the highest price evaluated-can considerably lengthen forest rotations from 20 to 28 years, raise the forest land values to the level of $3,845,261.01 per hectare, and increase the amount of carbon sequestered up to 2,192.20 metric tons per hectare, relative to the base case of no carbon compensation. If the carbon payments are only made for the regenerated stand only, it will create an incentive for the forest owners to harvest the existing forest earlier. When the level of payment is high enough, the forest owners might harvest the existing forest immediately after the enforcement of the carbon payment. Based on our simulation results, it is optimal for forest owners to immediately harvest an 5-year-old stand and 10-year-old stand at carbon prices as low as $600 and $1,000 per metric ton, respectively. If carbon compensation were extended to existing stands, the incentives for prematurely harvesting existing stands would be lessened.