本文主要目的係探討風險認知對於推動產業研發計畫績效之影響，回顧該領域相關文獻，我們發現過去計畫風險管理皆偏重於風險分析、風險衡量與風險因應等相關議題之研究，但是在風險認知方面的探討仍相當缺乏。然而風險認知實為風險管理的一項重要研究課題，為達到瞭解風險認知對決策行為與科技計畫品質之影響的研究目的，本研究採用 Janis 與Mann 所提出的衝突決策模型為理論架構，以工業局協助傳統工業技術開發計畫的四個廠商為實證對象，探討風險認知與決策行為的過程，對於科技計畫績效提昇的影響。本研究採用分析概化法則進行推論，根據研究資料分析結果顯示，在計畫前期之風險知覺及記憶萃取等階段，團隊經驗扮演非常重要的角色；而在計畫後期之建立新策略及時間評估等階段，團隊配合度則對計畫績效有顯著的影響。最後，我們提出一個以團隊為基礎的七階段衝突決策修正模型，本研究發現為因應外在不斷變化之風險情境，該修正模型的七個階段具有自動回饋性質，對於計畫團隊而言，此乃是一項自我學習的過程。此外，計畫之不確定性、自籌款比例與計畫申請之原始動機等因素，在風險知覺階段對於計畫團隊之決策行為有顯著的影響，本文之研究成果可以提供未來該領域研究或實務應用之參考。

The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between risk
perception and the performance of industrial R&D projects by using Janis and Mann’s conflict model. According to the past literature, we found most of them merely focused on risk identification, risk measurement, and risk analysis, etc. Few studies were addressed the issue of risk perception. However, risk perception is one of the most important aspects in risk management. In order to understand the effects of risk perception on industrial R&D projects, we used conflict model, proposed by Janis & Mann, as the theoretical research framework. And four industrial R&D projects, sponsored by Industrial Development Bureau, are used as research cases to conduct an empirical study. The results reveal that the experience of the R&D project team plays an important role in the initial stage. The coordination among the team members is important in the final stage, and it has a significant effect to the performance of the project. Besides, we found the uncertainty, the percentage of the enterprise’s own expenditure, and the motivation of project in the risk perception stage is one of the crucial factors for the project. Based on the research findings stated above, we finally proposed a team-based conflict
model. This proposed model was able to interpret the risk perception behavior for the industrial R&D project quite well.