受美國次級房貸的影響，全球股票市場發生劇烈的變動，投資人深怕手中的持股會變成下一支出現財務危機的地雷股。故本研究主要目的，期能從財務比率、公司治理機制及總體經濟敏感度變數中建構一套財務危機預警模型。藉由此模型，或許能提供投資人在投資股票市場時，有關各公司財務危機風險評估一套進退的準則。在樣本方面，本研究搜集2003 年至2006 年間，我國上市上櫃公司中，因發生跳票擠兌、紓困－財危及繼續經營疑慮等財務危機而下市之公司為研究樣本，並選取與財務危機公司相對照之財務正常公司進行配對。再進一步藉由各組平均數相等性檢驗及Logit 迴歸，針對研究假設進行驗證，並選取各構面顯著之變數建構本研究之財務危機預警模型，以分類表來檢測所建立之財務危機預警模型對財務危機公司是否具有不錯的預測能力，最後再以2007 年之資料做驗證。研究結果顯示，在2003 年至2006 年間，財務正常與財務危機公司的正確區別率達89.23％，在2007年驗證樣本中，財務正常與財務危機公司正確區別率達87.33％。由分類表檢測結果可知，本研究建構之財務危機預警模型擁有不錯的區別能力，期能藉由此預警模型幫助投資人遠離地雷股，也對監督機構及上市上櫃公司本身提供預警，有及早對症下藥的功效。

Nowadays, the global stock market was dramatically affected by the Subprime Mortgage Crisis and all inventors were worried about the stocks they hold would become the tank stocks. The main purpose of this research is to construct an alarm system for the financial crisis by applying the financial ratios, corporate governance and sensitivity variables of macroeconomics. This research would like to analyze and predict the possibility of occurring financial distress companies as well as provide the warning information to related organizations or inventors. The samples in this study were collected from 2003 to 2006 TSEC and OTC companies in Taiwan.
First, the companies which failed during the period of financial crisis because of the Bounced cheque,Relief-financial distress or Concerns continue to operate are selected. Then, the companies in normal financial
conditions are selected to compare those in contrast financial situations. The average rate of each group in the T test and Logit regression are used to verify the hypotheses and the significant variables are selected to build the financial crisis prediction model. Finally, the Classification Table is used to examine the prediction ability of our financial crisis prediction model. Then, the data of 2007 are used to verify the model. The results show that the prediction ability during 2003-2006 is 89.23% whereas in 2007 is 87.33%. According to these results, the financial crisis prediction model in this study presents good prediction ability. The main purpose of this research of financial crisis prediction model is not only to alert the investors away from the potential tank stocks when they are making decisions on investment, but also to provide the alarm signals for the competent authority, TSEC and OTC companies in Taiwan.