自2007年起，肇因於美國的次級房貸風暴，透過國際金融市場迅速擴散到全球，使得世界各國重新檢視貿易全球化之利弊。本文藉由一小型開放經濟體系之動態一般均衡（dynamic stochastic general equilibrium,DSGE）模型，探討在一開放經濟體系下，匯率彈性與經濟開放程度與信用市場失靈而致之金融危機之間的關係。為探討信用市場，我們在模型中引入銀行部門，藉以刻劃銀行體系對於審慎監督放款之缺乏，亦即歷年金融風暴乃至次級房貸風暴之共同成因；並藉由模擬校準（calibration），對此議題進行數值化的分析。模擬結果顯示，對於銀行放款生產力的衝擊將使本國債券利率上升，進而造成本國貨幣升值，產出下降。此外，匯率的波動將擴大金融風暴對於實質部門的負面影響，且其影響力會隨著經濟開放程度增加而上升。

The objective of this study is to examine how exchange rate flexibility and economic openness influence the transmission of financial shock in the credit market. To illustrate the failure of cautious monitoring for loans (the common cause of historical financial crises as well as the 2007 subprime crisis that spread rapidly through globalization), we perform a quantitative examination by calibration a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with costly loan-making in a small open economy. The numerical results show that the shock to the bank’s productivity in the loan-making drives up the home bond rate, which causes the home currency to appreciate, thereby reducing production. In summary, the floating exchange rate amplifies the adverse effect
of financial shock on the real sector, and its influence rises with the degree of openness.