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績效與策略研究

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篇名 兩岸經貿互動關係與經濟整合性之研究
卷期 2:1
並列篇名 A Study on Trade Interdependency and Economic Integration between Taiwan and Mainland China
作者 劉祥熹蔡秀卿
頁次 143-187
關鍵字 經貿互賴共整合方法誤差修正模型Error correction modelEconomic and trade interdependencyCointegration approach
出刊日期 200506

中文摘要

本文研究目的旨在探討經貿交流與兩岸經濟整合及互動關係之影響。依近十年來的兩岸經貿互動與投資情形,透過兩岸經貿交流與投資之互動是否呈現經濟整合的現象,同時探討經貿整合尊兩岸貿易投資之影響效果,以利尋出兩岸經濟整合尊雙邊貿易可能的影響,進而瞭解兩岸經濟整合的可能性,凸顯兩岸雙贏的局面與強化兩岸經濟合作應藉助雙方的互動因素,達成本身的的經營與運籌能力,同時在全球化趨勢與區域結構的變化中能強化兩岸經貿與投資之互動。 根據經貿、直接外人投資及經濟整合相關理論,本文建立包括台灣與大陸雙邊貿易及投資變數在內的實證引用模式,透過共整合迴歸法(cointegration regression approach)檢測兩岸市場與經濟整合之效應,並進一步估計紊入共整合因素的誤差修正模式(error correction model)探討兩岸經濟整合因素尊雙邊貿易與投資之影響效果。基本上,本文分析所獲致之實證結果有利於提供兩岸經貿互動與交流之有效經濟與政策涵義。

英文摘要

The main purpose of this study is to explore the trade interdependency and economic integration between Taiwan and Mainland China. Since the decision of labor, mutual trade and direct foreign investment to Mainland China have been booming, it anticipates that the effects on interrelationships of export, import and investment across strait will become more interchangeable. Based on the theory of international trade, direct foreign investment and economic interdependency, this project tries to construct the postulated model which can be used to detect the factors that affect the economic integration via cointegration regression approach and investigate how the cointegretion factors influence the trade and investment between Taiwan and Mainland China. Eventually, the empirical results would give effective suggestions for economic, managerial and policy implications.

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