本文針對2010年12月23日以後到2010年12月30日之間的模擬總統候選人支持度民調，利用一階自身相關迴歸模型，藉由探究各種因素的影響，找出影響第一次投票的新選民民調支持度的可能原因，並進而探究這些原因對雙方支持度差異的影響，試圖解釋雙方陣營之間差距的波動。為探究民調支持度及差異的變化，本文原擬蒐集了上述時間點內的許多重要事件，利用對事件的分類，將之分為六項（政府施政、經濟、兩岸與統獨、候選人個人議題、政黨與其他），一一檢視各類事件的影響程度，並加入了媒體機構效應、候選人提名與否以及選舉期別的不同等因素，以及事件在經過時間的影響之下，對民調支持度的變化原因作一闡述。

This research attempts to find out the possible reasons which affect to the polling supports of pan-blue and pan-green’s presidential candidates by first-order autoregressive model since December 23th 2010 to December 30nd 2012. We explore the effect of these factors and how the factors to affect the degree of both candidates’ supports. We try to explain the fluctuating of both sides’ degree.To exploring the change of the polling supports and degree, this research collects many significant events during the said period. We view the degree of each category’s effect by sorting out government’s policy, economy, ideologies of independence and unification, the personal issues of candidates, parties’ issue and others to explain the reasons of polling supports’ change in addition I add the effect of media organ, candidates nominating or not, the difference of each election, and the time effect.