文章詳目資料
台灣公共衛生雜誌 ScopusTSSCI
加入收藏
下載文章
| 篇名 | 極端氣溫對台灣都會區65歲以上族群心肺疾病死亡之風險趨勢分析 |
|---|---|
| 卷期 | 30:3 |
| 並列篇名 | A chronological study of mortality risks associated with extreme temperature for elderly populations in metropolitan areas of Taiwan |
| 作者 | 林于凱 、 吳祐誠 、 黃鈴雅 、 林嘉明 、 吳聰能 、 周昌弘 、 宋鴻樟 、 王玉純 |
| 頁次 | 277-289 |
| 關鍵字 | 心血管 、 呼吸道 、 死亡 、 溫度 、 cardiovascular 、 respiratory 、 mortality 、 temperature 、 Scopus 、 TSSCI |
| 出刊日期 | 201106 |
中文摘要
目標：評估1994-2008年台灣地區極端氣溫及其連續3日以上事件對老年人全死因及心肺疾病死亡風險之年代變化。方法：利用遞延分配模式(distributed lag model)分析1994-2008年台
北、台中及高雄三都會區65歲以上族群全死因、心血管死因(ICD9 390-459)及呼吸道疾病死因
(ICD9 460-519)在>30℃日均溫每增溫1℃累加7日及<18℃日均溫累加21日之死亡風險。地區日
均溫高於95百分位值及低於5百分位值連續3天以上時，我們視為極端高/低溫度事件，亦放入
模式中以評估其影響。結果：高溫風險在台北地區最高，>30℃每增溫1℃全死因及心血管死亡
約增加5%。低溫的影響在高雄地區最高，低於18℃每降溫1℃對全死因之相對風險為1.07 (95%
CI: 1.05-1.10)，對心血管死亡之相對風險為1.09 (95% CI: 1.03-1.14)。高溫死亡相對風險隨分析年份增加似有降低之情形，但低溫死亡相對風險卻無顯著降低。呼吸道疾病死亡與極端溫度並無統計相關。結論：溫度變化與台灣三大都會區全死因及心血管死因死亡具顯著相關，在累加溫度延遲影響後，連續3日以上極端溫度事件影響較不顯著。
英文摘要
Objectives: To evaluate the mortality risks from all causes as well as cardiorespiratory diseases associated with extreme temperatures among the elderly in the Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung areas of Taiwan from 1994-2008. Methods: We used the distributed lag model to analyze the 7-day cumulative mortality risks associated with 1℃ daily average temperature
increases above 30℃ and the 21-day cumulative mortality risks associated with 1℃ daily average temperature decreases below 18℃ in the study areas. Relative risks associated with extreme temperature (>95% and <5%) for more than 3 consecutive days were also evaluated.Results: Taipei had a significant 5% excess mortality from all causes as well as cardiovascular diseases as daily average temperature above 30℃ with each 1℃ rise. Low temperature resulted in higher risks in Kaohsiung where the relative risk was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for mortality from all causes and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03-1.04) for mortality from cardiovascular diseases as
the daily average temperature below 18℃ decreased by each 1℃. We observed adaption for high temperature but not cold temperature. No significant associations were observed between temperature changes of 1℃ and mortality from respiratory diseases. Conclusions: Cumulative
mortality risks from all causes and cardiovascular diseases were significantly associated with high and low temperatures in met ropolitan areas of Taiwan. The impact of each 1℃ temperature change appeared to be greater for people in the Taipei area than for those in other areas.