目的：根據全國失能調查結果推估國內2000年以及2010年及2020年所需之機構式及社區式長期照護物理治療人力。方法：採用2000年全國普查之20歲至49歲民眾失能資料、2001年全國長期照護需要評估計畫之50歲以上失能者資料及2003年建構長期照護體系先導計畫之物理治療使用率等資料，根據美國物理治療學會健康需要模式(APTA health-need method)來推估全國20歲以上失能民眾所需之物理治療師人數。結果：2000年全國20歲以上民眾約有242,258名需要物理治療之失能人口，所需之長期照護物理治療師人力低推估為1,474名、中推估為3,461名、高推估為5,191名。隨著人口成長預估2010年所需之長期照護物理治療師人力低推估為2,108名、中推估為4,990名、高推估為7,485名；至2020年則成長至低推估2,915名、中推估6,941名、高推估10,411名。結論與臨床意義：依據目前物理治療師養成速率以及世界各國物理治療師合理比例來看，目前長期照護物理治療師人力雖無法滿足低推估所需，但2020年之物理治療師人力應足供國內長期照護物理治療服務之所需。

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to estimate the number of physical therapists needed in years 2000, 2010 and 2020 to serve patients in long term care based on disability survey results in Taiwan. Methods: The results of two national survey samples were used to estimate the number of disabled population for our study. The first sample was the national survey of disability for people aged between 20 and 49 years old in the year 2000. The people with one ADL item disabled were assumed to need physical therapy. The second sample was from the national survey of the project 'Evaluation of Taiwan National Requirements for Long-Term Care' for disabled aged 50 and over in the year 2001. People with muscle weakness, range of motion limitation, cardiovascular restrictions, mobility limitation were assumed to need physical therapy. The APTA health-need model was used to estimate the medium projection of physical therapist manpower needs in the year of 2000. Disabled people who needs physical therapy was categorized into community or institutional care. Furthermore, frequency and duration of treatment were estimated based on their mobility scores in Barthel Index. For home physical therapy, each physical therapist was assumed to serve 4 clients per day. For institutional or out-patient community services, each physical therapist was assumed to serve 8 clients per day. Results: Based on the surveys in the year 2000, there were 242, 258 disabled people who required physical therapy. In order to fulfill the need of these disabled people, the number of physical therapists needed were 1,474 for low projection, 3,461 for medium projection and 5,191 for high projection. With population growth, the low, medium and high projections of physical therapists needed in the year of 2010 would become 2,108, 4,990 and 7,485 respectively. And the projects in the year of 2020 would reach 2,915, 6,94l and 10,411 respectively. Conclusion and Clinical Relevance: In view of the present cultivation rate of physical therapist and reasonable ratio of physical therapist required around the world, the present long-term physical therapist manpower will not meet even the low estimation, but the available physical therapist in 2020 should be sufficient to meet the requirement for long-term care community.