台灣水鹿(Rusa unicolar swinhoii)之數量在近年有增加趨勢，但國內目前對水鹿之分布情形仍不十分了解，造成經營管理上的困難。本研究以太魯閣國家公園為樣區，進行穿越線調查獲得181筆水鹿分布資料，以地理資訊系統結合海拔、坡度、坡向、規整差植生指標、環境型態、與道路距離、與水源距離等七項環境因子，利用軟體DK-GARP 進行遺傳演算法之運算，建立台灣水鹿生態區位模式及分布預測圖。結果顯示南湖山區、奇萊與磐石山區、陶塞溪流域、耳無溪流域等地為太魯閣國家公園內最適合水鹿生存的地區，而合歡東峰及合歡北峰等地是未來水鹿可能擴散之區域，但中橫公路帶來的干擾可能使其沿線較不適合水鹿生存。此外，太魯閣國家公園北側之和平南溪與闊闊庫溪流域緊鄰園區內之水鹿熱點，但未受到生態保護區保護，未來應進行調查了解該區狀況。本研究成功的預測太魯閣國家公園之水鹿分布情形，未來可應用到其他地區，以增加對本種之了解。

In recent years, the population size of Formosan sambar deer (Rusa unicolar swinhoii) has increased. However, the distribution patterns of Formosan sambar deer remain unclear, which has caused difficulties for conservation and management. We carried out line transects and obtained 181 deer occurrence data in Taroko National Park. The data was analyzed using geographical information system (GIS). Seven environmental factors including altitude, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index,
environmental type, distance to road, and distance to watercourse were used. We developed ecological niche model and predictive distribution map of Formosan sambar deer by the software DK-GARP. The results suggested that Mt. Nanhu, Mt. Qilai, Taosai river basin, and Erwu river basin are the most suitable habitats for Formosan sambar deer in Taroko National Park. Hehuan east peak and Hehuan north peak are the potential areas of deer dispersing. But the disturbance from Central Cross Island Highway may affect deer’s dispersion. Besides, it’s recommended that survey of Heping south river basin and Kuokuoku river basin be done in the near future because these areas are in close proximity to the deer hotspots yet outside the National Park boundary. This study successfully predicted the distribution of Formosan sambar deer in Taroko National Park. In the future, this method can be applied to other areas and improve our knowledge of Formosan sambar deer.