近年來都市防災的觀念逐漸受到重視，然而在災害的相關研究中，多著眼於應災救災的需求，對於都市災害發生的空間區位與影響因素等之研究，相對較為欠缺。本研究欲採用階層線性模式探討社會經濟變項因子及實質空間結構對火災發生之關聯性，以探討不同使用行為或活動、實質空間結構及社會經濟統計指標與火災災害間之關連性，並嘗試結合風險評估分析以繪製災害風險地圖。本研究運用「台南市一一九報案資料庫」及不動產調查資料庫為基礎，結合地理資訊系統(GIS)進行模式建立與風險預測。經由階層線性模式的檢定，證實火災損失程度及火災發生機率與土地使用及實質空間結構存在相關性。此外，於檢視火災潛在損失推估方面，可能造成重大火災損失的位置聚集於安平區與中西區；而於火災潛在發生率推估方面，較容易造成火災發生的位置聚集於北區與東區；將所評估的風險值依風險程度進行分區劃設，並進行現有救災區位之檢討，以檢視救災服務之績效，期能強化安全城市之推動。

In recent years, the urban fire prevention concept has gradually attracted more and more attention. However,in the relevant studies of disasters, issues seldom involve disaster prevention and reduction, mostly focus on the demand of disaster rescue. This paper attempts to explore the connections of fire disasters by using Hierarchical Linear Model on different land use behaviors, real spatial structure and social economic statistic indicators. And try to combine the risk analysis to draw a risk map for disaster.This paper used Tainan City, Taiwan as the study object. It adopted the information of 119 caller ID and dispatch information system and combined with the geological information system to establish fire history case occurrence location information. Through Hierarchical Linear Model test can find out the fire phenomenon in
Tainan City, the result can demonstrate the relationship between the degree of fire damage, the probability of fire,land use and spatial structure. In fire potential lost estimation, the serious fire will mostly occur in An-Ping District and Chung-Shi District. In fire potential rate estimation, the fire location will mostly occur in Bei
District and Don District. The result could explicitly explain the risk of urban disasters and it also could be the relevant reference for urban disaster prevention strategy.