A型流感病毒(H1N1)在墨西哥起源，並且在短短四個月內蔓延到全球各個國家，台灣也無法倖免於難，由於此一類流感病毒是新進化而來，過往的研究資料無法對其傳染性與嚴重性有任何了解，讓各國衛生機關完全無法掌握它的影響力。Fraser等學者[1]對於墨西哥的H1N1流感疫情分析所得到再生基數(Basic reproduction number)的數值為R0 =1.58，代表單位時間內一位流感病患會衍生出1.58位病患，根據以往對於再生基數的了解，當0 R >1時表示疾病將會蔓延，反之則會消失。由0 R =1.58的結果得知：預估H1N1新型流感將會在墨西哥蔓延開來，或許將會造成嚴重的大流行。本研究將分析台灣的H1N1新型流感病患的資料並估計0 R 值。使得衛生機關可以進一步掌握此一疾病的影響力，透過公共政策的執行與相關衛生知識的宣導可以讓疾病可能造成的損失降至最低。利用台灣的資料做分析的結果得到0 R =1.732與Fraser對於墨西哥資料分析的結果非常相近，可以依墨西哥的經驗來推測並對照台灣地區的H1N1疫情狀況，讓全國國民有個依據，能提高警覺度但不至於太過於恐慌。

Influenza A virus (H1N1) originated in Mexico, and in just four months spread to countries around the world, Taiwan cannot exclude since the influenza virus is a new one evolved in the past the research data. It is impossible to infectious and severity of any understanding so that each national health authority all over the world unable completely to grasp its impact. The basic reproduction number analyzed by Fraser et al [1] for the H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico is 1.58, representing a unit of time derived from influenza patients will be 1.58 patients. Based on past knowledge base for the basic reproduction number whenever the basic reproduction number greater than 1 means that diseases will spread, otherwise it will disappear. By the results that estimate of new influenza H1N1 will spread in Mexico, and perhaps will lead to serious
pandemic. In this study we analyze growth of the patients of H1N1 influenza in Taiwan and found some new information and estimations in it. This information could give health authorities further understand the impact of this disease through the implementation of public policy and
advocacy related to health knowledge so that the disease can cause losses to a minimum. Our results are very similar to the Mexico data which is analyzed by Fraser. We then can speculate by the Mexico's experience and the control the H1N1 epidemic situation in Taiwan so that we can improve alertness, but not too panic.