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經濟研究 EconLitTSSCI

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篇名 美國存託憑證與母國股票報酬間之動態關連性─極端尾部相依性以及Kendall’s tau 之研究
卷期 47:2
並列篇名 The Dynamics Interdependence between the Stock Returns of Taiwanese High-Technology Firms and their ADRs-Evidence from the Extreme Tail-Dependence and Kendall’s tau Measures
作者 張光亮黃宗佑
頁次 305-356
關鍵字 Copula 函數尾部相依性Kendall’s tauGARCH 模型美國存託憑證CopulaTail-DependenceKendall’s tauGARCHAmerican Depository ReceiptsEconLitTSSCI
出刊日期 201107

中文摘要

本文的主要目的是透過很多不同型式之copula 設定 (包含Normal、Student’s t、Gumbel、Clayton、Frank 以及三種混合型copula 模型) 來調查台灣高科技廠商 (台積電、矽品、聯電、日月光、友達) 股票與其美國存託憑證 (American Depositary Recipts,ADRs) 之動態相依性。兩市場間之關聯性是透過尾部相依以及Kendall’s tau 測度來衡量。實證結果發現,對矽品以及聯電公司而言,Student’s t copula 函數最適合用來描述美國存託憑證與母公司股票報酬之動態關聯性。此一結果隱含同一種資產在台灣與美國上市之報酬具有對稱之動態相依性。另外一方面,由Normal、Gumbel、Gumbel-Survival copulas 所構成之混合型設定適合於台積電、日月光以及友達,顯示現貨與ADRs 存在非對稱相依結構。不論公司為何,本文發現相依性結構並非固定不變而是隨著時間經過而有所不同。在2008 年金融海嘯發生期間,Kendall’s tau 以及尾部相依性指標透露出它們之間的相依性出現下跌傾向,此一現象可能與政府對股票市場之干預與管制有關。

英文摘要

This paper examines the dynamics interdependence between stock returns of Taiwanese high-technology firms and their American Depository Receipts (ADRs) using a variety of copula specifications. The empirical results find that the Kendall’s tau and the tail-dependence measures vary
across time, supporting that time-varying specification as being important in describing interdependence between asset returns. The Student’s t copula which emphasizes the symmetric dependence is suitable for Siliconware Precision Industries Company (SPIL) and United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC). The mixture copula which emphasizes the asymmetric dependence is suitable for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Incorporation (ASX) and AU Optronics Corporation (AUO). Furthermore, during the 2008 financial tsunami, the decrease in interdependence can be attributed to the government intervention and control in the stock market.

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