本研究主要是利用實質選擇權(real options approach; ROA)方法，建構競爭者存在下決策者進入與退出市場之決策模型。接著以大陸紡織產業市場為例進行數值分析模擬與敏感度分析，進而探討紡織公司進入與退出大陸紡織市場之最適決策門檻值，並討論如何規避投資專案之風險，提高不確定環境下管理者的應變能力，以為紡織公司進入與退出大陸市場時之策略選擇參考。研究首先建構決策者進入與退出市場之決策模型，再探討進入與退出大陸紡織市場之投資專案最適門檻值，並針對投資專案之潛在策略價值進行分析，最後與風險修正後淨現值( NPV)法進行比較。結果發現：1.本研究探討之進入與退出模型，符合實際營運模式。2.透過數值分析資料模擬後，能清楚呈現ROA 與傳統NPV 法之差異。3.競爭者存在下之決策門檻值高於競爭者不存在時之決策門檻值，因此競爭者存在下之投資決策比較保守，符合投資行為之預期。4.在進入大陸市場方面：不論競爭者是否存在，ROA模型投資決策皆較NPV 法保守。5.NPV 法未考慮投資設廠的不可回復性，造成了專案計畫價值過於高估，而ROA 能夠修正NPV 法之缺失，將投資決策的管理彈性價值納入，使企業能夠針對不確定的市場狀況與未來報酬進行分析，適時修正管理策略。

In this paper we construct the entry-exit decision models with existence of competitors by using real options approach, and then conduct numerical analysis and sensitivity analysis to evaluate the optimal entry-exit thresholds for income uncertainty deal with the entry and exit strategy in textile industry into Chinese textile market. By this way, we can price the optimal project value and provide decision maker for another decision way of thinking to be a reference.We construct the entry-exit decision models to research the optimal entry-exit thresholds in Chinese textile market and to compare the differences between real options
approach and risk adjusted net present value method. Our study employs the real options approach to derive four results as follows. 1. The entry-exit decision models with existence of competitors constructed by this paper are appropriate to analysis the entry and exit strategy in textile industry into new textile market. 2. By numerical analysis, we can find that there are many evident differences between real options approach and risk adjusted net present value method. 3. The thresholds of the entry-exit decision models with existence of competitors are higher than the entry-exit decision models without competitors, i.e., the decision models with existence of competitors is more conservative than the decision models without competitors. 4.No matter whether competitors exist or not, the entry threshold of real options approach is higher than net present value method’s, i.e., the decision of real options approach is more
conservative than net present value under uncertainty. 5. No consider the non-recovery of investment project is a shortcoming in NPV method, and ROA method can improve this shortcoming.