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科技管理學刊

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篇名 政策導向之前瞻方法建構—以個人化醫療為例
卷期 16:3
並列篇名 Development of a Policy-oriented Foresight Method-the Case of Personalized Medicine
作者 蔡 璞殷正華林海珍
頁次 053-076
關鍵字 前瞻技術地圖方法學政策規劃個人化醫療ForesightTechnology roadmapMethodologyPolicy planningPersonalized medicineTSSCI
出刊日期 201109

中文摘要

科技的創新是由技術與社會共同演化而成,因此本文由未來社會、經濟需求出發,建構出一種政策導向之前瞻方法。科技前瞻經過時間演變及方法學的不斷精進改良,已由決策支援工具逐漸轉化成為一種政策工具。技術地圖因其技術規劃的特性而能聯結現實與未來,遂廣為各國應用而成
為落實科技前瞻規劃的有效利器。然由於技術地圖方法開發之初係為產業研發管理需求所設計,必須整合其他前瞻方法後才較適合作為政策長期規劃之用。因此本文在此概念下,比較分析數種國際前瞻曾採用之整合型技術地圖之優劣點,汲取各方法之精髓後開發設計出一種由前瞻情境出發且可整合部門分工之技術地圖操作模式,並以個人化醫療作為範例驗證其可操作性,期能在演練過程中,對於方法模組與流程之設計能有更深入之啟發,並對未來政策應用能有所助益。

英文摘要

The development of technologies evolves along with social and technology
co-evolution. This paper is to construct a policy-oriented foresight method based on the future needs of society and economy. Due to the continuous improvements in its methods, government foresight program has evolved from decision support mechanism to be a policy instrument. To further implement technology foresight, technology roadmap is now widely adopted as a tool to ‘plan’ and link the future. For long-term policy planning, however, it is necessary to integrate technology roadmapping with other foresight methods togo beyond its use as R&D management tool. This paper therefore compares and contrasts several integral technology roadmapping methods used in technology foresight programs in order to propose a foresight-informed technology roadmapping. The roadmapping of personalized medicine is presented as an example to verify the practicability of proposed procedure that may benefit future policy-making.

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