軌道系統容量不足往往是導致列車延滯之主因，尤其在初始延滯 (first delay) 發生後，後續所引發的連鎖延滯 (knock-on delay) 擴散效應對列車正常營運之影響甚大，因此欲確保系統之可靠度及服務品質，快速有效地降低連鎖延滯一直是重要課題。為有效釐清造成連鎖延滯之複雜因素及其交互作用，本研究依據臺鐵系統之運作特性開發一模擬模式作為分析工具，並以臺鐵之七堵─樹林路段為案例分析關鍵因素對於連鎖延滯之影響。本研究主要內容除研析列車密度 (train density)、初始延滯及運轉調度策略 (timetable recovery strategy) 對連鎖延滯之個別影響及其整體交互作用之影響外，更以迴歸分析方法構建列車連鎖延滯與該 3項因子之間的指數關係函數以作為估算連鎖延滯的簡便工具。研究成果可作為排班規劃、系統可靠度分析以及服務品質改善之參考。

Railway system train delays are affected by many factors, and one of the most important factors is insufficient line capacity, and knock-on delays (delay propagation) caused by the first delays, always interrupt railway operation. How to reduce the knock-on delays quickly is the most important issue to maintain timetable reliability and the high quality of the railway service. In order to clarify the impacts of these complicated factors and their interactions on knock-on delays, this research develops a comprehensive simulation model to deal with the related problems, and a rail section from Cidu to Shulin of the Taiwan railway system is selected for case study. Regression analysis is used to calibrate the relationships of the knock-on delay with the three key factors, which are train density, first delay and timetable recovery strategy based on the simulation results of the case study. The regression models indicate that the relationship between the knock-on delay and these three key factors conforms to an exponential function. It is expected that the results can be helpful to timetable scheduling, system reliability analysis and service quality improvement.