觀察兩岸簽訂的ECFA，於早期收穫計畫中列18項農產品，將為台灣農產外銷中國大陸帶來新的活力和機遇。目前中國大陸已成為台灣農產品外銷的第四大市場，其中又以水果為主。本文旨在探討零關稅政策對台灣水果產業的影響，藉由時間序列方法進行迴歸分析，探討影響台灣水果外銷中國的主要因素。實證結果顯示，實行零關稅政策對台灣水果外銷至中國大陸的影響是正面且顯著的，且隨著中國大陸走向市場經濟，其經濟持續成長、人均所得不斷上升，故對進口水果需求提高，再加上在中國大陸的台商及台幹人數增加，亦提升台灣水果進軍中國大陸的潛力；另外由對稱性顯示比較優勢指數(RSCA)也發現，台灣水果相對大陸水果而言明顯較具競爭優勢。

To observe the establishment of ECFA between Taiwan and China, the early
harvest program in the series of 18 agricultural products, agricultural products for export in China has brought new vitality and opportunities. Under the preferential Policy of zero tariff on fruits, China become the fourth-largest agricultural export market of Taiwan. This study discusses whether the signing of ECFA is an opportunity or threat through empirical model to analyze the factors which affect Taiwanese fruit exporting to China. The evidence indicates that the tariff free policy of PRC on Taiwan’s exporting fruit is positive and significant. China’s demand for
importing fruits dues to market reform, rapid economic development, and continuous GDP improvement. Furthermore, since the number of Taiwan’s businessmen and executives has been steadily increased, there is potential of Taiwanese fruits in the mainland. In addition, through revealed symmetry comparative advantage index (RSCA) shows that Taiwan’s fruit is relatively more competitive that China’s fruit.