我國兵役制度正逐漸由徵兵制、徵募兵併行制、募兵為主到募兵制的方式演進，募兵政策的推行茲事體大，攸關整體國家安全，男性志願士兵招募至今邁向第8 個年頭，少子化趨勢加上屆齡役男從軍意願普遍低落，未來志願士兵之供給與需求是否能如期達成平衡？或是供需失調的情形？值得我們深入探究。本研究鎖定在男性志願士兵需求預測，以近年來男性志願士兵需求與供給歷史資料為基礎，藉由灰色系統理論中，灰預測GM (1,1)模式分別以灰色4 點建模，推估民國98-103 年國軍未來男性志願士兵人力供需。研究發現以灰色4 點建模較能符合國軍未來組織變化，在供給與需求方面始終維持差距，未能達到供需平衡狀態，募兵兵員來源仍有疑慮。進而建議募兵制期程不應有時間表以及應設停損點，並針對人才招募策略與誘因以及國軍人力資源面提出具體建議。

The Military service system of Taiwan gradually evolves from conscription military,conscription-volunteer recruitment hybrid military, mainly voluntary military, to voluntary military. To carry out the voluntary recruitment is a matter of great substance which affects distinctly the nation security. It’s the eighth year proceeding voluntary recruitment; however,the trend towards fewer children and the general low-willingness of male joining military make a question if the need and supply of volunteer soldier can be balanced or lose the balance in the future? This subject is worth to discuss and research.This research is forecasting the demand and supply of male volunteer soldier. To apply GM(1,1) on the historical information of current demand and supply of volunteer soldier, and use gray point 4 and point 5 to predict the demand and supply of male volunteer soldier in year 98-103. The research discovered the gray point 4 is more likely the evolvement of military system of Taiwan with a result need is more than supply. Without demand and supply balance,
there will be problem of sourcing volunteer soldier. Thus, this essay suggests there should not be a timetable as well as limited move, and provides advices of recruit strategy and inducement and manpower of military.