本文主要針對出口過度脫離長期趨勢的現象(本文稱之為出口過度反應現象, export
overshooting),提供一些例證。本文研究2000年至2009年期間11個國家(經濟體) 的出口變動,發現2001年與2008年之經濟危機,的確有促使出口過度下跌的現象,且各國在2008年經濟危機之出口過度反應的程度高於2001年經濟危機,而台灣出口過度反應的程度也高於其他國家。長鞭效果(bullwhip effect) 是造成出口過度反應現象背後的主因之一。台灣由於位處供應鏈上游, 長鞭效果尤其顯著, 受到經濟危機之影響程度因而高於其他國家。此外, 台灣廠商進行台灣接單海外生產的運籌操作, 以及出口偏集於所得彈性較高之電子科技產品, 也促使台灣在面對經濟危機時, 出口下跌幅度較其他國家來得快、也來得深; 不過, 一旦景氣回升, 出口回漲速度與幅度也較其他國家來得快與大。

This paper provides some evidence of the “export overshooting” phenomenon,
i.e., the unusually large deviation of exports from their long-run level. We examined the exports of 11 economies over the period 2000–2009 and found overshooting did occur during the 2001 and 2008 crises. The overshooting, however, was more severe in Taiwan than in other countries, and in the 2008 crisis than in the 2001 crisis. We argue that the bullwhip effect is a major driving force behind the “export overshooting” phenomenon. Following this line of argument, Taiwan’s increasing susceptibility to economic crisis can be attributed to an increase in cross-border vertical specialization,offshore outsourcing of downstream production and the concentration of her exports in high-tech products that are sensitive to demand shocks.