蘇聯瓦解並引起東歐共產政權骨牌效應，中國遂廣受世界性輿論與學界預測是下一個骨牌。但似乎是「中國崛起論」代替「中國崩潰論」。西方學界預測中國趨勢往往得到垮台或動亂結論。這推論常忽略「中共因素」的反應、抵制與適應能力，以及中共回應外界挑戰的作為。因此，中共的國家能力可能是引起外界「測不準」的原因。本文以Skocpol的國家自主性與國家能力，這兩個概念為分析架構結合中共黨組織運作（黨的建設、調適與轉型），來觀察中共的「國家能力」取得與運用。

The Soviet Union collapsed in company with East-Europe regimes into the domino effect, then the worldwide nations and scholars predicted China the next domino broadly. In fact, it seemed to the thesis of China rising instead of China collapsing. Generally, western scholars predicted Chinese trend as collapse and turmoil. This reasoning usually neglected China-factor its reaction, resistance and adaptation in addition to the exertion of Chinese Communism Party(CCP) against external challenges. Thence, the CCP-capacity may be the causation resulting in the predictive failure. This article unfolds its key idea and analytic framework with Skocpol’s concept the state autonomy and state capacity. This bi-conceptual analysis framework combines CCP’s exercise for party-organization in party’s building, adaptation and transformation, so as to observe how the capacity is achieved and power is exercised by CCP.