我國與日本間的釣魚台列嶼主權爭議，自1972 年美國將釣魚台管轄權交予日本起，迄今已近四十年。其間有石油與天然氣開採問題、我國船隻在該海域進行捕撈作業而遭受日艦阻擋、衝撞、船員遭到拘捕與罰款等等情事。而每一次釣魚台衝突事件，我國與日本的策略與行動方案，將導致不同的結局。衝突分析方法（Conflict Analysis）是一種研究實際衝突局勢的方法，透過對衝突可能結局的偏好排序，進行邏輯學與集合論的運算來求得衝突的最可能結局。由於該方法具有便於定量分析與定性分析的結合、容易用電腦運算等優點，很適合進行危機對策方案的篩選。故本研究乃針對「聯合號」海釣船事件，利用衝突分析方法加以研析，據以推估我國與日本政府可能行動的方案與策略之優先順序，並探討在各種結局排序下所獲致的平衡解與實際衝突事件結局間的關係，做為決策者爾後面對類似衝突事件時決策之參考。

The conflict between Taiwan and Japan on Tiaoyutai islands has been 40 years since 1972. During these years, there were many conflict events occurred. In each event, Taiwan and Japanese government would have their own strategies and possible actions which result in different outcomes. Conflict Analysis is a methododology dealing with actual conflict
situations, by the possibility of ending the conflict in order of preference, to logic and set theory to obtain the operator of the most likely outcome of the conflict event. Since the method facilitate quantitative and qualitative analysis of the strategies combination, it is easy to screen the crisis response strategies. Thus, this study use conflict analysis to analyze the sports fishing boat "Lien Ho" sinking event, and to estimate the possible actions and strategies of Taiwan and Japanese government so as to explore the relationship between the equilibrium solutions and actual results. By way of the proposed conflict analysis, the government will make appropriate response to similar conflict event.