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績效與策略研究

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篇名 Volatility Forecasting Performances of GARCH Family and Neural Networks
卷期 9:1
作者 Chiu, Chien-liangHung, Jui-cheng
頁次 041-061
關鍵字 Asymmetric GARCH modelsNeural networksRealized ranged-basedSPA test
出刊日期 201203

中文摘要

英文摘要

In this paper, we propose a hybrid model, which combines artificial neural
networks (ANN) with GARCH-type models, to improve the volatility forecasting performance of GARCH-type models in Taiwan stock index. The
realized range-based volatility is used as the true volatility proxy in evaluating forecasting performance while adopting statistical loss functions. A VaR-based loss function is employed to evaluate the predictive performances to further show economic benefits of this hybrid model. To control for the data-snooping problem, the superior predictive ability (SPA) test of Hansen (2005) is applied to reveal the statistical significance and ensure obtaining robust results. Our empirical result indicates that using artificial neural networks can indeed improve the GARCH-based volatility forecasting. However, the improvement is
only limited to the statistical evaluation method.

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