本文分析台灣在2002年到2008年之間實施兩次金融改革在銀行業
造成的政策效果。 第一次金改的目標在於提升資本適足率與降低逾
放比, 第二次金改則是鼓勵銀行進行合併。 本研究的重點在於探究
金改政策對於產業競爭程度與存、 貸款戶福利水準的影響。 藉由估
計存款與放款需求模型得出銀行屬性對於存、 貸款戶效用的影響,
我們發現提升資本適足率能提升存、 貸款戶的效用, 但降低逾放比
則沒有顯著影響。 估計出來的利率彈性顯示在實施這兩次金改的期
間, 市場競爭程度大致趨緩, 而存款與貸款消費者的福利水準都下
降。 至於金改政策本身造成的直接效果則可透過反事實分析 (coun-
terfactual experiments) 的方式來排除其它因素的影響, 我們發現第
一次金改的政策對競爭程度的影響很小,但同時提升了存款與放款
消費者的福利。 第二次金改的直接效果則降低了市場競爭程度, 雖
然提高了存款者福利但卻減低了放款者的福利。

This paper analyzes the effects of the two waves of financial reforms im-
plemented between 2002 and 2008 in the Taiwan banking industry. The
first financial reform aimed to raise capital adequacy ratios and reduce non-
performing loans. The second financial reform encouraged banks to merge.
We investigate the impact of the reforms on market competition and con-
sumers’ welfare. Using a structural demand model for saving and borrowing
in a differentiated market, we find that a bank’s capital adequacy rate has
a positive impact on the utility of both savers and borrowers. Contrarily,
the ratio of non-performing loans has no significant effect. During these
reform periods, market competition tended to decline while consumers’
welfare dropped for both savers and borrowers. Nonetheless, when we use
counterfactual experiments to isolate the direct effect of reform policies from
other factors, we find that the first reform had almost no effect on market
competition while raising both savers’ and borrowers’ welfare. On the other
hand, the second reform reduced market competition, increased savers’ wel-
fare, but decreased borrowers’ welfare.