因應高油價時代的來臨與綠色運輸政策的推動，本研究課題著重於探
討小汽車與高鐵兩城際運具間，受運具使用成本差價影響下的競爭關係。
有別於過去研究多採線性個體選擇模式，本研究嘗試應用尖點劇變模型，
試著從非線性觀點分析城際旅運者的運具選擇行為，並了解可能存在的非
線性特徵，同時採定量與定性分析方法。實證研究主要針對高鐵市場的潛
在旅客小汽車駕駛人進行問卷調查，共蒐集 614 份長程旅次樣本。有關運
具選擇行為模型的校估，係以運具選擇意向作為狀態變數，至於控制變數
之正則因子與分裂因子則分別設定為運具使用成本差價與移轉障礙，並檢
定控制空間中六個區域的樣本結構分布比例的差異性，進一步解釋運具選
擇行為可能產生之發散性、突變性、滯後性與雙重性等劇變特徵，以及其
於行銷管理應用上之意涵。駕駛人認知的移轉障礙較高，且當油價漲至 34
元/公升以上，趁勢搭配 6 折以下的高鐵票價折扣優惠時，運具選擇行為最
易發生不連續變化現象。

Realizing the effects of the price difference between cars and high speed
rail on drivers’ modal choice behavior is a crucial issue for making intercity
travel decisions. Differing from previous studies, in which discrete choice
models were used to discuss drivers’ modal choice behavior, this paper attempts
to apply the cusp catastrophe model to discuss drivers’ modal choice behavior
under various modal price scenarios and describe their non-linear
characteristics through quantitative and qualitative analysis. According to the
empirical study, the questionnaire survey that was conducted received 614 valid
samples from freeway drivers who travel long-distance in Taiwan. The proposed
behavioral model used “modal choice intention” as the state variable while
“switching barrier” and “modal price difference” were used as the splitting
factor and normal factor of the control variable, respectively. The test of
independence was performed to check sample structures for six areas of the
control space, and the catastrophe characteristics (such as divergence,
catastrophe, hysteresis, and bimodality) of switching behavior were discussed. A
higher switching barrier would easily cause discontinuous behavior especially
while encountering higher oil prices (NT$34/litre) with 60% discounts
implemented for HSR tickets.