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大氣科學

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篇名 臺灣氣候變化:1911~2009年資料分析
卷期 40:3
並列篇名 Climate Variations in Taiwan During 1911-2009
作者 盧孟明卓盈旻李思瑩李清縢林昀靜
頁次 297-322
關鍵字 氣候變遷氣候變異極端天氣與氣候臺灣Climate changeClimate variationsWeather and climate extremesTaiwan
出刊日期 201211

中文摘要

本文選用6個具有百年以上長期記錄的氣象測站(臺北、臺中、臺南、恆春、臺東、花蓮)分析臺灣區域氣候變遷的特徵,包含平均氣候與極端事件發生頻率的長期變化特徵。
年平均溫度長期變化趨勢顯示暖化現象十分明顯,在1911 年至2009 年期間氣溫上升了1.4℃,增溫速率相當於每10年上升0.14℃。近30年(1980~2009)氣溫的增加速度明顯加快,每10年的上升幅度為0.29℃,幾乎是百年趨勢值的兩倍,與政府間氣候變遷專門委員會(IPCC)第四次評估報告(AR4)結論一致。在季節特性方面,百年變化以秋季溫度的暖化幅度最大,但近30 年的變化以冬季的增溫幅度大於其他三季。6個測站的極端高溫日數百年變化都呈現增加的趨勢,而極端低溫事件的100 年、50 年、30年線性變化趨勢都為下降。
降雨方面的百年線性變化趨勢並不明顯,但有明顯年代際變化特徵。值得注意的是降雨日數有較一致的變化,普遍呈現減少的趨勢。全島平均年降雨日數自1911 年至2009 年下降幅度約為每10 年減少4天,近30年則增至每10年減少6天。四個季節的雨日都呈現減少趨勢,其中以夏季的減少幅度最大。雨日的減少主要為小雨日數(日雨量<1.0 mm)大幅度減少所造成。
臺灣的極端天氣事件受颱風影響最大,分析近50年的颱風資料發現1990 年以後影響臺灣的颱風個數和1961 年至1989 年相比有增多的現象,且在2000 年出現明顯增多的轉折,這與西北太平洋颱風平均路徑向北偏移有關。另外,1980 年以後的侵臺颱風其生命歷程中達到強颱的比例明顯增高,可能與西北太平洋海溫和颱風的年代際變化密切相關。

英文摘要

The long-term climate variations in Taiwan are analyzed using the data observed at six meteorological stations (Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, Hengchun, Taitung, Hualien) that have the records longer than a century. The analysis includes the variations of mean climate and occurrence frequencies of the extreme events.
The results show strong warming trend of Taiwan climate during the past century. From 1911 to 2009 the annual mean temperature rose 1.4℃, which is equivalent to a warming rate of 0.14℃ per decade. The warming rate increases to 0.29℃ per decade for the 30-yr (1980~2009) data. The warming rate of recent 30 years is clearly faster than the earlier rate and about two times of the one-hundred year mean rate. This tendency is consistent with the findings in IPCC AR4. The largest centennial warming rate of seasonal mean temperature appears in autumn. However, during the most recent 30 years the largest warming rate appears in winter. The annual frequencies of the extremely warm days are found to increase with time at all six stations, while the opposite tendency is found for the extremely cold days.
No significant centennial trend is found for rainfall data, although the decadal-scale variations are evident. It is noteworthy that the decline of annual rain days is seen at all stations. The average decreasing rate of the rain days from 1911 to 2009 is about 4 days per decade. However, during the most recent 30 years the decreasing rate is 6 days per decade. The decreasing tendency appears in all seasons but it is sharpest in summer. The tendency is mainly contributed by the shortage of the days with light rain, which is defined as the days with daily rainfall amount less than 1.0 mm.
Tropical cyclone (typhoon) is the most influential weather system to climate and society in Taiwan. Based on the analysis of 50 years of typhoon data, it is found that there are more typhoons affecting Taiwan after 1990 compared with the period of 1961~1989. The increase is relatively sharp around 2000. It is suspected that such change is caused by the northward shift of typhoon tracks over the northwest Pacific. In addition to the frequency, it is found that the ratio of strong typhoon to moderate and weak ones also increased after 1980. This can be related to the variations of sea surface temperatures of the Pacific in the decadal time scale.

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