在民主國家，總統大選對於經濟的影響關係是普受重視的政治經濟問題。本研究主要目的是分析在不同民主程度與資本市場成熟度的國家，總統大選對於股票市場的動態衝擊為何，分析的對象為2000 年與2004 年台美兩國的總統大選，應用時間數列分析之干預模式，使用股票市場之發行量加權股價指數每日收盤價資料進行模式建立與比較分析。實證結果發現，2000 年與2004 年的台灣總統大選對股票市場有不同型態的衝擊，2000 年的台灣第一次政黨輪替，選舉結果對股票市場造成結構性的改變與強大的衝擊，而2004 年雖因319 槍擊案使得大選結果對股票市場造成重大的負向衝擊，但後續的衝擊呈現逐漸遞減，並回歸基本面；就美國而言，2000 年選舉結果受選票爭議事件影響，故對股票市場造成負向的結構性影響，但影響效果緩慢趨於平穩，而2004 年選舉結果對股票市場則是造成正向的結構性衝擊。

In democratic societies, presidential elections have an impact on the economy. This study examines the dynamic impact of presidential elections on the stock market in two countries with different levels of democratic development and market maturity. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s 2000 presidential elections had a temporary impact on the stock market, which gradually developed into a structural shift. However, the stock market experienced a major shock after the 319 shooting incident during the 2004 presidential campaign. Nevertheless, the impact tailed off and the market eventually returned to normal. In contrast, in the United States, presidential elections have caused permanent structural shifts in stock market due to fundamental differences in economic policies offered by the candidates.