篇名 | 運輸需求預測整合模型統合架構之探討 |
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卷期 | 24:4 |
並列篇名 | A Combined Model for the Four-step Travel Demand Forecasting Procedure |
作者 | 陳惠國 、 陳文婷 |
頁次 | 467-496 |
關鍵字 | 旅次發生 、 旅次分配 、 運具選擇 、 交通量指派 、 整合性模型 、 超級路網 、 Trip generation 、 Trip distribution 、 Modal split 、 Traffic assignment 、 Combined model 、 Supernetwork 、 TSSCI |
出刊日期 | 201212 |
基於用路人行為之均衡原則,本研究構建包括旅次發生、旅次分配、運具選擇與交通量指派在內之四階段整合模型,以克服傳統旅運預測之四階段界面不一致性的問題。整合模型經由改良後之超級路網的詮釋,可視為一個延伸性交通量指派問題。本研究以Frank-Wolfe 演算法求解小規模路網,分別針對線性與非線性路段成本函數加以驗證,並歸納出需求函數之係數的限制,文末亦比較整合模型與反饋式循序性模型之優劣點,並做出結論與建議。
Based on Wardrop’s first principle, this research formulates a combined model covering the four steps, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, traffic assignment, embedded in the traditional travel demand forecasting procedure. Using a modified supernetwork representation, the proposed combined model can be naturally regarded as an extension of the fixed demand traffic assignment model. The proposed combined model and the associated Frank-Wolfe algorithm are demonstrated with a hypothesized small network characterized by both linear and nonlinear link cost functions. The experiment also indicates that a certain restriction must be imposed on the parameters of origin-destination travel demand functions to ensure the convergence of applicable solution algorithms. A comparison of our proposed combined model and the sequential travel demand forecasting with feedback was also made. A few remarks are given in the end.