本文以共積迴歸法探討1981 年至2011 年期間國際對台灣觀光需求之決定因素。主要的發現如下：1.國際對台灣觀光需求、國外所得水準、相對物價水準、交通成本與經濟開放程度等變數存在長期穩定的關係。2.對台灣國際觀光長期需求具顯著正面影響的經濟變數中，依影響效果的彈性排序，分別為：國外所得與經濟開放程度；而具顯著負面影響效果的經濟變數中，依影響效果的彈性排序，分別為：相對物價水準與交通成本。3.事件變數中，開放陸客來台政策對觀光需求具顯著的正面效果；而負面的事件變數中，依影響效果的排序，分別為：SARS事件、亞洲金融風暴與921 大地震。上述結果顯示的政策涵義包括：1.政府欲提升國際對台灣觀光的需求，在經濟政策上宜採開放的態度，透過國際貿易的互動，有助於需求的增加。2.政府對於國內的物價要能有效的控制，並避免本國貨幣過度升值，才不會削弱國外觀光客的購買力。3.政府應重視公共衛生，以便發生如SARS 的疫情時，才能夠有效控制，以避免擴散。4.開放陸客觀光可增加客源，應是值得持續推動的政策。

The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of internationalinbound tourism demand for Taiwan by FMOLS cointegration regression approachover the period 1981-2011. The results show the following. First, all of economicvariables- international tourism demand, foreign income, real effective exchange rate,transportation costs, and economic openness are I(1) time series. Second, there existsa long-run stable relation between international tourism demand, foreign income, realeffective exchange rate, transportation costs, and economic openness. Third, bothforeign income and economic openness have statistically significant and positiveimpact on tourism demand. Furthermore, the former is more effective than the latter.Real effective exchange rate and transportation costs have significantly negativeeffects on tourism demand. In addition, the impact of real effective exchange rate isgreater than transportation costs. Fourth, among the event variables, the policy ofallowing Mainland China tourists visiting Taiwan has significantly promotedinternational inbound tourism demand. Fifth, SARS event in 2003, 921 earthquake in1999, and Asian financial crisis in 1997 have significantly negative impacts oninternational tourism demand. The policy implications from the results include that,apart from foreign uncontrollable factors and natural disasters, the policymakersshould keep the economy open, prevent inflation and avoid domestic currencyovervalued. In particular, the implementation of public health policies plays anessential role in promoting the development of tourism export. Finally, our findingsalso support the Chinese tourists visiting policy empirically.