近年來台商大舉至國外投資, 其中以投資中國為最大宗。台商至中國投資, 對母公司的營運以及供應國外市場方式的影響係一值得研究的議題。本文主要是針對台商至中國投資後對母公司外銷金額究竟是有替代或促進的效果進行探討。我們利用1992年至2006年間上市公司核准赴中國投資項目及實行金額、財務報表與公司外銷相互連結的資料進行實證分析,在這段期間上市公司至中國的投資急劇增加, 我們將檢視在中國的投資對母公司在台灣的外銷是替代或互補關係。我們分別利用三種計量模型: 固定效果的追蹤資料迴歸(panel regressions with fixed effects), panel Tobit 與動態追蹤資料模型(dynamic panel model)。實證結果大致相同,發現上市公司至中國的投資將減少母公司的外銷金額,換言之,對中國投資與外銷金額有替代的關係。值得注意的是, 不論是電子業或非電子業廠商皆有類似的結果— 然而電子業廠商具有密集生產網絡及近年大量投資中國之特點。此外, 結果的穩健性不受實證模型選擇的影響。

In recent years, an increasing number of Taiwanese firms have invested overseas and the foreign direct investment (FDI) has gone predominately to China. With growing importance of operations in China, it is essential to understand how FDI in China affects operation of the parent firms and their mode of serving foreign markets. This paper addresses this issue by empirically investigating whether FDI in China displaces or promotes parent firms’ exports. By using a unique firm-level data set that links approved investment projects and realized amount of FDI in China to financial statements and exports data of firms listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange from 1992 to 2006, a period of sharp increase in FDI in China, we are able to examine whether FDI in China substitutes or complements exports from home. We adopt three alternative empirical models: panel regressions with fixed effects, a panel Tobit model and a dynamic panel model. We find that FDI in China reduces parent firms’ exports, suggesting a substitutive relationship. Interestingly enough, the effect pertains to firms in both non-electronics industries and the electronics industry – which is characterized by dense production networks and surging
investment in China in recent years. The results are robust to choice of empirical models.