篇名 | The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors and Banking Fragility on Offshore Banking Unit (OBU) |
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卷期 | 18:4 |
並列篇名 | 總體經濟因素與銀行脆弱性對境外金融中心之影響 |
作者 | 陳若暉 、 王愉雰 、 柯家哲 、 狄強 |
頁次 | 407-425 |
關鍵字 | 境外金融中心 、 近似無關迴歸模型 、 亞洲金融危機 、 Offshore banking unit 、 seemingly unrelated regression 、 banking fragility 、 Scopus 、 TSSCI |
出刊日期 | 201312 |
DOI | 10.6126/APMR.2013.18.4.04 |
本研究針對台灣、新加坡、香港、日本、馬來西亞與泰國境外金融中心為樣本。並以銀行競争力指標將研究對象分成銀行競爭體系偏完全競争市場與偏寡占市場兩類,採用SUR模型來檢視總體經濟因素與銀行脆弱性對對境外金融資產的影響差異。本文根據1996 至2005期間之月資料,實證結果顯示,可利用SUR模型限制式評估境外金融中心。影響境外金融資產主要的因素為進ロ數量/GDP、金融深化指標、存放款利率差、銀行脆弱性指標、M2乘數、實質匯率。在區域性的金融危機發生時,管制境外金融中心贷款較為嚴格 的國家,較能避免外溢效果的影響。然而,泰國與馬來西亞由於金融制度較為寬鬆,容易導致金融危機的發生。
This paper focuses on the offshore banking units (OBUs) of Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand as research samples and uses the bank competition index to separate both perfect competition and oligopoly. We employ the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to examine the differences in the influence of OBU assets from macroeconomic factors and the degree of banking fragility. The empirical results from our monthly data from 1996-2005 suggest that the constrained equations of the SUR model are suitable for evaluating the OBUs. The main factors affecting OBU assets were the ratio of imports to GDP, financial deepening index, lending-deposit rate differences, banking sector fragility, M2 multiplier, and real exchange rates. If a regional crisis occurs, the spillover effect could be more easily avoided by having more restrictions on OBU loans. By contrast, Thailand and Malaysia have loose expansionary financial systems, leading to crisis occurrence.