過去因為政治因素，臺灣與中國彼此禁止國輪進入對方港口，權宜籍船 (FOC) 亦不得直航於兩岸港口間，係導致臺灣船舶出籍的重要原因之一。臺海兩岸雖於2008 年11 月4 日簽署「海峽兩岸海運協議」後正式直航，但對經營兩岸航線之船舶，限制必須為兩岸資本，並設籍於臺灣、中國或香港，方能經營；外籍船舶則被排除。面對此航運環境之重大變革，本文基於散裝航運公司立場，就海運協議規範下，進行兩岸直航最適船舶設籍方案之評選，主要採用模糊層級分析法 (FAHP) 構建評選架構，並探求準則權重，再採用灰關聯分析 (GRA) 克服小樣本限制，並結合理想解類似度偏好順序評估法 (TOPSIS) 探求最適之設籍地點。研究結果發現，於設籍方案中，以香港為最優先選擇、中國次之、臺灣最後；基此顯示，兩岸直航吸引臺灣散裝航運公司將船舶入籍，或將現有權宜籍船回籍為國輪之成效有限。於此針對我國現行航運政策提出建言，研究結果可提供政府機關作為航運與船籍政策之參考，亦有助於散裝航運公司經營兩岸直航船舶設籍決策之依據。

Due to political reasons in the past, ships registered in Taiwan and China were banned from sailing through the Taiwan Strait directly to the opposing coast, and ships registered under flag of convenience (FOC) were restricted from doing so as well. Evidently, this caused the flagging out of the Taiwanese fleet. Although the direct shipping link was established since the Cross-strait Sea Transport (CST) Agreement, which was signed on Nov. 4, 2008, both sides agreed only Taiwanese or Chinese ships registered in Taiwan, China, or Hong Kong have the qualification to run the cross-strait shipping route whereas foreign ships are excluded by principle. Confronted with the significant changes in the shipping environment, this study strives to explore the optimal flag selection for Taiwanese bulk shipping companies under the provisions of the CST Agreement. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is applied to evaluate the weight of each criterion and subcriterion. The methods of Grey Relation Analysis (GRA) and Techniques for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) are conducted to evaluate the optimal flag selection. Results show that for registering location, Hong Kong is the optimal choice, followed by China and Taiwan. Thus, by opening direct shipping within the Strait, the effect of motivating Taiwanese bulk shipping companies to flag their ships back and into the national merchant fleet may be limited. Some policy recommendations are therefore proposed and the results can serve as a good reference not only for the Taiwanese government in policy implementation, but also for Taiwanese bulk shipping companies in selecting appropriate flags for ships undertaking direct cross-strait shipping carriage.