本文使用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」(TEDS)TEDS2008P 與TEDS2012 的資料，觀察2008 年與2012 年總統選舉中，兩岸經貿開放議題對選民投票意向的影響。首先，敘述性統計部分發現，選民的兩岸經貿評估從2008 到2012 年之間出現兩個趨勢，首先是選民的回答趨向中立，開放前的高度期待與疑懼均大幅減少。其次，選民的兩岸經貿評估在整體經濟層級與家庭層級出現脫勾現象，即使有相當比例的選民認為整體經濟評估變好，但並不認為家庭經濟因此變好。實證結果方面，發現傳統測量選民回溯與前瞻的經濟評估題組，對於投票的影響力並不如兩岸經貿評估。其次，社會層級的兩岸經貿評估，與選民的投票意向關聯性較大，家庭層級的兩岸經貿評估，與選民投票意向的關連性較弱。最後，文中觀察包括政黨認同與統獨立場在內的認同因素，對兩岸經貿評估影響力的制約作用，結果發現，兩岸經貿評估的影響力在偏向統一或認同泛藍者中較大，在偏向獨立與認同泛綠者中較弱，這主要是當兩岸經貿開放評估所傳遞的訊息與受訪者原先信念一致時，兩岸經貿評估對投票意向的影響力較大，所傳遞的訊息與受訪者原先信念不一致時，兩岸經貿評估的影響力較小。

This article examines across-strait trade openness and vote choices in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We first demonstrate two trends about economic assessments in the 2008 and 2012 elections. First, more and more people consider the economic effect of economic openness as neutral. Next, respondents decouple their assessments in the aggregate level and family level. While a substantial percentage of voters still think that economic openness has been bringing about economic prosperity for Taiwan, it has not done so at the family level. As to the effect of economic assessment, we find that the traditional economic voting battery does not exert comparable effect on voting as economic openness. Next, the sociotropic assessment of economic openness is relatively more important than the pocket-book assessment. More importantly, we demonstrate how political identities, party identification and unification-independence choice, shape the influence of economic assessment on voting decisions. In general, economic assessments exert greater effects on pan-blue and pro-unification voters, while exert smaller effects on pan-green and pro-independence voters. This pattern is mainly associated with the extent that incoming messages are congruent with voters’ existing beliefs.