本研究以Ajzen(1985)的計畫行爲理論(Theory of Planned Behavior)爲基礎加以修正，配合區域性差異，建構一個北部民眾至金門旅遊的滿意度因果模式，提供金門地區觀光產業經營考量的依據。經結構方程式模型實證獲得以下研究結論：
一、北部民眾至金門旅遊的「滿意度」，主要受其「主觀規範」、「態度」、「成本效益」、「行爲控制知覺」等正向影響；但在顯著水準α=0.05之下，「成本效益」與「行爲控制知覺」對北部民眾至金門旅遊的「滿意度」，並無顯著影響。
二、影響北部民眾至金門旅遊滿意度模式之「態度」變項，主要受其「形象認知」、「行爲控制知覺」、「主觀規範」、「成本效益」等正向影響。

This study is based principally on Ajzen's theory of planned behavior, from which it's modified, and regional differentiations are also taken into consideration. Furthermore, it's makes the researcher be able to develop a casual-effect model about the "satisfaction" states of the northern population's for their traveling to Kinmen. This study also provides a framework for tourism management in Kinmen area. By the structural equation model, we obtain some findings as follow: Firstly, "satisfaction" of the northern population traveling to Kinmen ismainly influenced by positive factors such as "subjective norm", "attitude toward the behavior", "cost effect", "perceived behavioral control". But, with the significant level (α=0.05), "cost effect" and the "perceived behavioral control" don't have significant effect on the northern populations' satisfaction about the behavior of traveling to Kinmen.
Secondly, the status of the variable "attitude toward the behavior" for the northern population about the tour to Kinmen ismainly affected by positive factors such as "image", "perceived behavioral control", "subjective norm" and "cost effect" etc.