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篇名 重大天然災害產物損失對農業及整體經濟影響—以莫拉克與凡那比颱風為例
卷期 7:1
並列篇名 The Economic Impact from Agricultural Products Loss and Overall Economic Caused by Natural Disasters in Taiwan- The Case in Typhoon Moroak and Fanapi
作者 林幸君周秝宸張冠珍
頁次 047-077
關鍵字 投入產出分析就業效果天然災害農業損失Input-Output AnalysisEmployment EffectNatural DisasterProducts Losses in AgricultureEconLit
出刊日期 201304

中文摘要

雖然農業產值僅占現在台灣整體GDP不到2的比例,但農業仍舊扮演 帶動其他產業發展的角色。然而在農業生產過程中,常因不可控制的天災 影響進而造成最終財、農地或生產器材的損害;且這些損害會透過產業關 聯效果傳遞進一步對整體經濟產出及特定區域就業造成影響。一旦這類不 可掌控的天然災害爆發,即會對農業活動或勞動市場產生直接與間接的衝 擊。為衡量出這類衝擊所對產出損害與就業效果的影響,本文以莫拉克與 凡那比颱風為例,運用Miller and Blair(1985) 供給面投入產出分析(Input Output Analysis)進行探討。實證結果發現:莫拉克颱風及凡那比颱風 使農工業受創,產出減損的乘數效果分別為1.49及1.33,且造成失業率分 別上升0.13個百分點及0.06個百分點。

英文摘要

Although Taiwan’s agricultural production only accounts for less than 2% of total GDP, agriculture industry still plays an important role to support the development of other industries. However, during the production process, agriculture industry often suffers loss, in final production result and farming field and facility, caused by uncontrollable natural disasters. And transferred by the industrial linkage effect, this kind of production decrease impact will be seen on overall economy output and employment in that particular region. Once these uncontrollable natural disasters happen, the direct and indirect impact will change the agricultural activities and the labor market. Therefore, in this paper we try to apply supply side Input-Output analysis which constructed by Miller and Blair (1985) to evaluate the economic impacts from products loss and the employment effect which caused by the typhoon Moroak and Vanapi in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that the typhoon Moroak and Vanapi not onlycreate the multiplier of production losses (1.49 and 1.33), but also raise the unemployment rate to 0.13% and 0.06%.

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