近年來台灣藍綠對立衝突不斷，是否意味台灣的政治競爭已出現兩 極化的現象？本文將從民眾的政治態度出發，藉由1996 至2012 年五次 總統選舉選後的民意調查資料，建構台灣民眾政治極化的測量方式，同 時檢視政治極化的程度與趨勢。研究發現，即便兩岸統獨議題是台灣最 主要的政治分歧，但台灣民眾的政治極化並非是狹義的在統獨立場上呈 現兩極分布，而是廣義的在藍綠黨性之間存在相互敵視與對立。這種極 化態勢自2000 年首次政黨輪替後開始升高，於民進黨執政期間最為嚴 峻，2008 年二次政黨輪替後則出現緩和的趨勢。 至於在形塑民眾政治極化的原因上，民眾的黨性及其政治涉入程度 具顯著的影響力，當民眾的黨性愈強、政治涉入的程度愈高，其藍綠對 立的政治極化態勢愈明顯。此外，民眾的年齡愈長、教育程度愈低，也 因其政治態度愈穩固，或較傾向情緒性的政治思考，以致有顯著偏高的 政治極化結果。至於選舉輸家是否比選舉贏家有更強烈的藍綠對立極化 心理，則有待後續藉由更長期的民意調查資料進行檢證。本文的研究發 現也意味著，要緩和台灣藍綠對立的政治極化，並非政治菁英或民眾調 整其議題立場，而是政黨、政治人物或媒體應避免以煽動或渲染方式動員群眾，民眾更應提高公民素養，以理性取代激情來進行政治思考。

Political conflicts between the pan-blue camp and the pan-green camp have been increasingly severe since the 1990’s. Whether Taiwanese politics has become more polarized hence is an important issue on research agenda. This study analyzes survey data collected after 1996-2012 presidential elections, exploring the degree of political polarization and the factors affecting political polarization in Taiwan. It is found that political polarization appeared in Taiwan since 2000 and then continuously increased until 2008. The polarization was the product of the clash of partisanship, instead of mass attitude of “U shaped distribution” on unificationindependence issues. Regarding the causes of political polarization, people’s partisanship and political involvement are main factors. People who have strong partisanship and high level of political involvement are more likely to become political polarized. In addition, the elder and the less educated people are also more possible to become polarized. As to the effect of election results on political polarization, longitudinal survey data are needed to do further analysis. In conclusion, the author suggests that efforts of political elites and the citizens to adjust their issue positions might not diminish political polarization. For a better solution, party elites and mass media in Taiwan should adopt rational communication instead of emotional mobilization.