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語文與國際研究

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篇名 從安全困境看台海安全情勢
卷期 13
並列篇名 The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait: An Analysis from Security Dilemma
作者 林慶銘周志杰況正吉
頁次 105-130
關鍵字 中國威脅安全困境民族主義China Threatsecurity dilemmanationalism
出刊日期 201506

中文摘要

由於中國國力快速成長,「中國威脅論」自20世紀末開始成為重要議題,不但成為學界爭論焦點,也影響美國的外交政策,尤其是美國的台海政策。藉由安全困境理論,本論文首先分析與評估中國崛起的爭論上所體現在兩個問題:中國經濟與軍事實力增長到底有多快?世界上,特別是美國與台灣,應該如何回應這一正在崛起的大國。其次,安全困境的嚴重性當被廣義地衡量,有些如民族主義的因素亦應納入考量。基於這樣的關注,即可清楚看到台海安全困境動態有其獨立的複雜性。1990年代以來台灣海峽一再出現的激烈對抗看來是安全困境的典型案例,他闡明了為何有些人會擔心中國實力的增長,以及為何基於這一擔心而做出的回應將導致危險的制衡行為並增加軍事衝突的可能性。最後,本論文針對台海安全困境的緩解,提出相關的建議。

英文摘要

Due to the rapid growth of China's national power, the so- called "China Threat" has become an important issue sioce the late 20~ century. It involves academic debates not only over power issues, but also over issues on American diplomatic policy, especially toward the Taiwan Strait. Employiog the theory of security dilemma, this paper first analyzes and evaluates the rise of China and addresses two questions: "How fast are China's economic and military capabilities iocreasiog ? " and "How shonld the world, especially the United States and Taiwan, respond to this emergiog great power? " Secondly, it is believed that the security dilemma shonld be measured more broadly and some factors, such as nationalism, need to be taken ioto accouot as well. It is clear that the dynamics ofthe security dilemma io the Taiwan Strait are uniquely complex. The ioterests rivalry that has reemerged io the Taiwan Strait sioce the 1990s seems to be a classic example of the security dilemma, illustratiog why some are worried that the growth of Chioese military power and the reactions to it would result io dangerous balanciog behavior and would iocrease the chances of military conflict. Fioally, this paper offers some suggestions to the further relaxation ofthe security dilemma across the Taiwan Strait.

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