本研究利用技術地圖的工具，以小組 討論輔以專家會議與文獻整理的方式，結 構性地探索未來10 年新興傳染病生醫檢測 設備或試劑的技術發展路徑，特別是生物 特徵已知且可供鑑別之新興飛沫傳染性病 毒，例如，SARS、禽流感、新流感等。 本研究首先探討新興傳染病生醫檢測 設備或試劑的應用領域（市場區隔），並 在考慮生醫檢測領域之法規限制與市場可 行性後，將市場區隔為快篩情境、附檢驗 服務之診所或檢驗所、中大型醫院，以及 醫學研究中心等四個市場區隔；其次，探 討各市場區隔適用的產品技術，分析結果 顯示，在快篩情境與附檢驗服務之診所或檢驗所，以「免疫」檢測原理之產品極可 能在未來10 年內仍能持續維持產品的優 勢；中大型醫院以「核酸」與「免疫」兩 種檢測原理的產品分庭抗禮；在醫學研究 中心則以「核酸」檢測原理的產品勝出。 最後，本研究依各產品之競爭性替代技術 間的成熟度、成本及商業化時間繪製技術 發展地圖。

This paper presents an exploration on the technology development of the diagnostic products for emerging infectious disease in ten-year time horizon based on technology roadmap method. The research is structured with group discussion, expert panel review and literature review, focusing on the newly emerged infectious disease caused by viruses that have been recognized and spread through droplet such as SARS, bird flu and swine flu. The markets or application areas of diagnostic products for newly emerged infectious disease are first identified and grouped into four segments based on the health institution regulation: i.e. rapid screening, medical laboratories or clinics with diagnostic services, medium to large hospitals, and medical/research centers. The products and technologies applicable to each segmented market are then reviewed and discussed to explore the possible dominant technologies in the next ten years for each market. The study reveals that immune-type diagnostic product will probably be the dominant product in the markets of rapid screening and medical laboratories/clinics with diagnostic services; while in the medium to large hospitals market, both nucleic acid-type and immune-type products possess equal potential; in medical/research centers, nucleic acid-type products will probably be the dominant. Finally, substitute and competing technologies/products in the four markets are assessed by their technological maturity, cost and predicted commercialization time to construct a technology roadmap.