長久以來，台灣對全球的國際貿易大都呈現順差的情形。而在全球各個國家間的競爭力評比中，國際貿易常被列為衡量的指標之一。因此，了解台灣之國際貿易順逆差對於其在全球貿易市場中之競爭力的影響如何？是一個值得探討的重要議題。本研究經由台灣之國際貿易順逆差對國際貿易競爭力之轉移函數模式建構顯示，國際貿易順逆差當期之季節同期變動量(▽12)增加一單位(百億美元)，會正面顯著地(Pr值<0.0001)影響國際貿易競爭力當期之季節同期的變動量(▽12)，影響的權重是0.520467。亦即，國際貿易順差的成長會促進國際貿易競爭力的成長；反之，國際貿易順差的衰退則會帶動國際貿易競爭力的衰退。因此，政府或企業經營的相關政策若能促進台灣國際貿易順差的成長，則應採取支持的態度。反之，相關政策若可能使台灣國際貿易順差衰退，則應予規避。本研究並以所建構的轉移函數模式，來預測台灣未來一年的國際貿易競爭力。

For a long time, Taiwan has mostly presented the situation of the favorable balance to global international trade. The competitiveness among each country in the world is compared and assessed. International trade is often classified as one of the benchmarks. Therefore, to understand Taiwan’s international trade’s favorable balance and unfavorable balance in the global trade market will have any competitiveness influence? It is an important issue that is worth exploring. This research is built and constructed using the ARIMA transfer function model which shows Taiwan’s international trade’s favorable and unfavorable balance to global trade’s competitiveness, the result shows that international trade’s favorable and unfavorable balance at the seasonal tth period’s changes (▽12 ) and increases one unit (ten billion US dollars ), will have a positive significance (Pr value <0.0001)influencing the international trade competitiveness at the seasonal tth period’s changes (▽12 ), the weight influenced is 0.520467. Namely, the growth of the international favorable trade balance will promote the growth of the international trade competitiveness. On the contrary, the decline of the international favorable trade balance will drive the decline of the international trade competitiveness. Therefore in Taiwan, the government or enterprise managements should take up a supporting attitude that can promote the growth of the international trade’s favorable balance. On the contrary, avoid relevant policies that may make the international favorable trade balance decline. This research constructed the ARIMA transfer function model to predict Taiwan’s international trade competitiveness in the future year to come.