近十年來，智慧型手機產業已經為台灣帶來了重大的經濟活力與利潤。但自2012 年中 起，環境改變，原本自2007 年以來看似難以撼動的i Phone 霸主地位，已面臨了Android 作 業系統大軍的崛起，i Phone 看似有節節敗退之勢，尤其是韓國三星與LG 軍團的聲勢最為驚 人，相對的，台灣在這越來越競爭的產業中漸漸處於劣勢，但最令人關注的，則是中國智慧 型手機產業的發展步調令人咋舌，加上4G 通訊規格的啟動時程尚未明朗，以及Android、 Windows 8 與Apple iOS 的行動作業系統與其背後的經營模式之爭。在百家爭鳴的情形下， 非蘋果的智慧型手機該選擇何種行動作業系統？何時是啟動LTE（或其他通訊規範，如LTE Advanced）之最適時機？Android 的市佔已超過七成，照道理廠商可能會有西瓜偎大邊的想 法，業者應該趨之若鶩，但為何事實正好相反？仍有業者（如Nokia）選擇重押Windows 8 的作業系統，Samsung 亦發展獨家行動作業系統。故本文將以華為(Huawei)為例，說明一家 市場後進者(follower)在不可回溯性(irreversibility)與高度不確定性的嚴峻考驗下，市場後進者 該如何藉由實質選擇權決策樹方法，進行創新經營模式發展進路之個案分析。

The smart phone industry had brought Taiwan’s economy great vitality and profits for decades. However, as the market structure changed, the smart phone firms in Taiwan gradually come to a worse situation. Because of the competition is not only from the smart phone products from Apple and Samsung, but also from the different operation systems (iOS of Apple, Android of Google, Windows 8 of Microsoft, etc.) resulting in more intense competition in the smart phone market. In particular, considering the innovative business model behind the different kinds of the operating systems (e.g., “App Store” of Apple vs. “Android Market” of Google), which has caused the knockout games in smart phone market, then Nokia, Motorola, Blackberry, and other well-known smart phone manufacturers face the dilemma of a severe recession. On the other hand, when the pioneers of the smart phone producers are gradually eliminated (such as Nokia and Blackberry, because these operating systems are out of the market), some followers of this industry (e.g., Huawei, ZTE, etc.) had the opportunities to grab the market. Owing to these followers selected the most popular operating system and developed the most valuable products models with lots of fantastic functions, however, the smart phone market still belongs to a highly competitive market and lots of much heavier uncertainties issues about the technology developing process (e.g., the industrial standard of 4G system, LTE or LTE Advanced?), timing problems of 4G system implementation and the irreversible billions of huge capital investment. This article adopts the “Real Option Binomial Decision Tree" for assessing the development strategies of the smart phone industry followers under considering the above uncertainties and irreversible issues to construct the innovative business model. Furthermore, we adopt the most famous followers in smart phone industry: “HUAWEI” as the case to demonstrate our approach.